Path To The Playoffs: Week 14 Edition

It is no longer just up to the Vikings. They’ve put themselves in a situation where not only are they going to have to win on the field, but they’ll also be keeping an eye on the stadium scoreboard to see the status of other crucial games. Jared Allen would say something like, “We are no longer in control of our own destiny.”

Last week’s chat that we hosted when the Vikings lost in Lambeau was pretty brutal. Lots of doom and gloom that the Vikings playoffs shots this year are over. Even our very own [favorite] blogger Adam Warwas announced that our postseason aspirations were done. This put me in a precarious position. Here are both my readers and my boss(?) announcing that our playoff hopes are gone. So, do I continue my Path to the Playoffs segment? If the Vikings are done, does it matter?

But when I started doing this little segment a few weeks ago I said that I would keep doing it until the Vikings were completely eliminated from participating in the playoffs. While their shots are slim, their is still a chance it could happen. Our buddies over at KAB pointed out yesterday that the Vikings odds of making the postseason, as established by Football Outsiders, is 3.3%. The sad part? That was before Percy Harvin was put on injured reserve.

It definitely doesn’t look pretty. At 6-6, there are five other teams ahead of the Vikings in the wild card race. While most of these teams are also 6-6 the bad news is that four of them currently have a tie-breaker over us.

Let’s just take a look at the standings:

Playoff Picture

  1. Atlanta Falcons (11-1) – Clinched Division
  2. San Francisco 49ers (8-3-1)
  3. Green Bay Packers (8-4)
  4. New York Giants (7-5)
  5. Chicago Bears (8-4)
  6. Seattle Seahawks (7-5)
  7. Washington Redskins (6-6)
  8. Dallas Cowboys (6-6)
  9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)
  10. Minnesota Vikings (6-6)
  11. St. Louis Rams (5-6-1)
  12. New Orleans Saints (5-7)
  13. Detroit Lions (4-8)
  14. Arizona Cardinals (4-8)
  15. Carolina Panthers (3-9)
  16. Philadelphia Eagles (3-9)

What We Need To Happen

We need people to lose. Can everyone lose except for us? Can we just make that happen? 15 NFC losses, one win! That would help our playoff hopes. Are all the other NFC teams playing AFC teams this week or something?

What’s that? They’re not? That’s not possible?


St. Louis at Buffalo – Rams loss.

The Rams are only one spot behind us at #11. Honestly though, if we lose this week, it doesn’t really matter what happens with them. But, because they’re an NFC team playing an AFC team, we want the Rams to lose.

Atlanta at Carolina – Toss-up.

Honestly, this one doesn’t really matter. Carolina isn’t going to make the playoffs and Atlanta has already clinched their division.

Dallas at Cincinnati – Cowboys loss.

With the same record as us (6-6), the Cowboys are now a legitimate playoff contender and someone we need to be rooting against moving forward. This week they travel to Cincinnati which will likely be a close match-up. With a loss against the Bengals and a Vikings win over the Bears we would move back ahead of them in the conference standings. Plus, it’s the Cowboys.

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay – Buccaneers loss.

This is a big one for us… We really need the Eagles to win this weekend in Tampa Bay. Not only are the Bucs tied with us at 6-6 but they also hold the head-t0-head tiebreaker over us.

Baltimore at Washington – Washington loss.

This is basically the same scenario as the Philly / Tampa Bay game. Washington is tied with us at 6-6 but they also hold that darn head-to-head. This is why it’s so important to beat fellow NFC teams throughout the regular season. Baltimore hasn’t been playing light’s out lately and they’ll be in Washington so I could see this one going either way. Plus, I suppose anything’s possible for the Redskins with RGIII at the helm.

Miami at San Francisco – San Francisco win.

This one realistically doesn’t mean that much. But, might as well root for the 49ers to win so, if for some reason it comes down to it, we have the better strength of schedule.

New Orleans at New York Giants – Giants win.

A Giants win is preferred here because they’ll likely win their division while the Saints will be playing for a wildcard spot. Our wildcard spot.

Arizona at Seattle – Seattle loss.

We need Seattle to lose. They ended up beating the Bears last week which put them a game ahead of us. Plus, they hold the head-to-head tie breaker. I swear, the more and more I say that the hardest this thing seems. Everyone holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over us! This will be a tough game for Arizona but they’ve upset teams they were supposed to lose to as the visitor already this season (See New England).

Detroit at Green Bay – Green Bay loss.

As if you didn’t want the Packers to lose already…

So, let’s summarize. There are a lot of teams the Vikings need/want to lose. Here are the big ones, though (I’ve underlined them above): Seattle loss, Tampa Bay loss, Washington loss, Packers loss. It’s very unlikely that all the teams we want to lose this weekend will do so (although, it’s already happened once). What absolutely has to happen though is the Vikings beat the Bears in front of thousands of desperate fans tomorrow at the Metrodome. If they don’t and, say, the Packers and Seahawks win, this thing could really be over.

Bonus Prediction Time!

I’m going to publicly predict a Vikings win tomorrow for one reason and one reason alone. The Vikings will sustain the hope of fans until the very last second and then deliver a crushing blow that eats at us throughout the entire offseason. Vikings win, 20-14.

Until then, I’m gonna stay sippin’ that purple kool-aid. You guys know you love the hope. You need the hope!