Assessing The Value: Day Three Trades

The Vikings made two trades during the first round of the Draft on Day One.  Then, on Day Two, they didn’t budge.  Now that Day Three came and went, however, we have two more trades to analyze and break down.

Minnesota was rich with draft choices entering the third day of the Draft with nine total.  Fans thought this indicated the team would be willing to package picks together to move up and grab the appropriately coveted players.  This turned out not to be the case, but the team did show a willingness to make an investment in their future by snagging picks for next year’s Draft.

This could be a good approach, as the team is highly unlikely to receive any 2013 compensatory picks because of how free agency played out this year.  We’ll break down each trade from a “point value” standpoint, referencing each against the Jerry Johnson Trade Chart as well as the Harvard Trade Chart, both of which are posted and explained on this page.

Vikings Trade Fifth Rounder (#138) and Seventh Rounder (#223) To Lions for Seventh Rounder (#219) and a 2013 Fourth Rounder

Jimmy Johnson Trade Chart:  This pegs the Vikings fifth rounder as being worth 37 points and the seventh rounder as being worth 3.3 points, for a total worth of 40.3 points.  The future fourth rounder from the Lions can be given an estimated value of about 35 points.  Meanwhile, their seventh rounder carried a value of 4.8 points which puts the total value of their package at 39.8 points.  This means the Lions came out ahead by 0.5 points.  Pretty darn close.

The caveat here, however, is that the value of that fourth rounder received from the Lions will only grow as the 2013 Draft draws nearer.  According to the chart, fourth round selections can be worth anywhere from 112 to 44 points on Draft Day.

Harvard Trade Chart:  The post-CBA chart puts the Vikings fifth rounder at a value of 70.3 points and their seventh rounder at 40.2 points.  Meanwhile, the Lions seventh rounder would carry a point value of 41.8 points and the future fourth rounder would be worth approximately 43.35 points.  That means the Vikings gave up 110.5 points while receiving only 85.15.  That fourth rounder could end up being worth anywhere from 76 to 98 points next offseason, however, all on its own.

Vikings Trade Seventh Rounder (#211) To Titans for a 2013 Sixth Rounder

Jimmy Johnson Trade Chart:  The Vikings pick carried a point value of 8 points.  A sixth rounder would be estimated at a value of 11 points.  The Vikings come out ahead on that trade from a points standpoint.  The value of that sixth rounder would be anywhere from 28 to 15 points by this time next year.

Harvard Trade Chart:  According to this chart, the pick given up by the Vikings was worth about 36.3 points.  The sixth rounder they received was worth an estimated 25.45 points.  Once again, however, that investment is expected to grow and the sixth rounder should end up being worth between 44 and 58 points next year.