Sunday, March 29, 2015
Blog Page 135

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It has become a truism in quarterback evaluation that any scouting report that starts with the word “winner” is usually a death knell for a quarterback prospect, and it signals that their tangible qualities aren’t front and center.

In a sense, it allows us to substitute analysis for mystique, without regard for whether or not that ephemeral quality of “winning” can translate to the next level. In fact, it can’t even translate throughout NFL careers, much less across different levels of football. Winning in the first four seasons has virtually no relationship to winning in the next four.

The NFL is littered with the careers of quarterbacks who had “it” in college, but didn’t have the skills in the NFL—Tim Couch, Matt Leinart, Chris Leak, Vince Young and notably, Tim Tebow. Josh Heupel went undrafted. Greg McElroy and Kevin Dorsey were picked in the 7th round.

So when evaluators point to “winning,” they’re using a crutch that indicates—whether or not it’s on purpose—that there is no demonstrable reason or sustainable expectation of talent that will allow someone to succeed in the NFL. It means they couldn’t isolate why a prospect will be successful, but simply that he has been.

Even knowing all of that, it should catch your eye that everyone I talked to called Brock Jensen, quarterback of the North Dakota State Bison and prospective 2014 NFL rookie, a “winner.”

How could they not? He, along with his teammates and coaching staff, have won three consecutive national championships in Division I-AA (or more commonly, the Football Championship Subdivision), going 43-2 in that three-year span. In this case, it wasn’t so much that Jensen didn’t have demonstrable talent that was easy to break down, it was that his importance to the program and his immense aptitude for the game jump right off the page.

Every year that Rick Spielman has been with the Vikings has produced at least one ambitious and exciting move.  Sometimes they have been in the form of player trades (Jared Allen and Percy Harvin), free agent signings (Brett Favre), or Draft Day moving and shaking (Matt Kalil and Cordarrelle Patterson).  Even during the seemingly ho-hum offseasons he has produced at least one splash move that gets the fanbase to collectively giggle with glee.

Today’s cuts, as outlined earlier by Arif, are reportedly going to leave the Vikings with a whopping $41 million in cap space.  Meanwhile, Spielman is still armed with a full compliment of draft picks.

Right now, most Vikings fans seem to think they have Spielman pegged, that he will predictably spend conservatively in free agency and explore all options to move around throughout Draft Weekend.  They think he’ll bargain hunt, perhaps throw his new coach a bone by signing Michael Johnson, and then lean on Norv Turner to pick which quarterback prospect to target in May.

I don’t think it’ll be that predictable.

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The Minnesota Vikings are winnowing down the roster, cutting nose tackle Letroy Guion and wide receiver Greg Childs.

Letroy Guion has been a starter at nose tackle since 2012, and played at the nose tackle position since 2010, where he moved to after playing as a rotational under tackle for the Vikings in 2008 and 2009. Drafted out of Florida State in the fifth-round, Guion’s role has always been more natural at the 3-technique spot, where he played at occasionally in his professional years before the Vikings committed to Jimmy Kennedy (and later Christian Ballard) in the rotational 3-technique spot.

Initially a move designed to ameliorate the upcoming loss of Pat Williams in the nose tackle spot (and rotate in Kennedy), Guion saw significant snaps in 2011 after the Vikings signed nominal starter Remi Ayodele, who in fact saw fewer snaps than Guion over the year.

Guion outperformed Ayodele in those limited snaps and was installed as the starter, but has been wanting at best. He’s been moved around on double teams and hasn’t been an able run defender, though has been able to generate pass-rushing pressure in one-on-one situations at times.

All of the strengths that Guion had, however, were replicated by his backup Fred Evans, who nearly outperformed him in every way. In his years with significant snaps, Pro Football Focus ranked Guion as the 60th of 88 defensive tackles, 85th of 85 and 60th of 69.

Honestly, it was a bit of a struggle to explain why Guion kept his starting job despite consistent underperformance and one of several black marks for former head coach Leslie Frazier throughout his tenure.

As for Greg Childs, the promising prospect out of Arkansas was deemed as a potential first-round pick as a junior before suffering a patellar tendon tear. His workouts in the 2012 NFL Combine were phenomenal, but his injury risk dropped him to the 4th-round. He began to look promising in training camp before an extremely rare bilateral patellar tendon tear (a simultaneous tear to both knees), a condition unusual enough that English and German medical literature only had records of 50 previous cases throughout the history of recorded medicine.

Sitting out two NFL seasons on IR, then the PUP list, Greg Childs’ best chance at making an NFL roster was this year, when his knees would theoretically be repaired.

He probably will have one more shot at best to make an NFL roster, but injury has clearly derailed an extremely promising career.

Letroy Guion cost $4.3 million in cap space, while Childs incurred a $645k cost, per spotrac. Because Guion had a signing bonus, his cut saves a net of $4 million, while Childs’ cut nets just under $500k in space.

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Another rumor roundup for this week, and it once again includes a lot of material from Tony Pauline and various local beat writers around the league.

The last rumor roundup I posted inspired a lot of questions online and in my inbox about the veracity of “my” rumors. The vast majority of the rumors posted aren’t really “mine” in that I haven’t been directly sourced most of them and they are published elsewhere. This is more of a summary of the work done around the league.

More than that, rumors are not reliable, all they do is give a little additional context to the speculation every fan does in the offseason. Check out Walter Football’s 2013 Rumor Results to see how useful they really are. Even more useful is this article from a former director of college scouting for the Bears, Greg Gabriel. Teams will lie.

Enjoy.

The free agency free-for-all is less than a week away and the Vikings have finally started to show signs of life here recently.

On Wednesday, they informed running back Matt Asiata that he would be tendered as an exclusive rights free agent.  As a result, Asiata will play under a one year deal worth $570,000.  According to the Pioneer Press, Asiata’s agent first learned of the team’s intentions during the NFL Scouting Combine, but the move hardly comes as a surprise to anyone involved.

Asiata is 26 years old and finally got to see some real NFL action towards the end of last season when both Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart were injured.  He ended the season with 44 carries for 166 yards (3.8 yard average) and three touchdowns.  All three touchdowns came in one game against Philadelphia, less than two months after he tragically lost his father.

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