Speculation

Question Of The Week: Time For A Coaching Change?

November 6, 2012, by 35 comments

In 2010, Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings ranked 23nd in offensive yards gained and 29th in points scored.  They ranked 10th in rushing offense and 26th in passing offense.

When the Vikings transitioned from Brad Childress to Leslie Frazier in the head coaching spot, Bill Musgrave was hired to head the Vikings offense and their top draft picks were spent on quarterback Christian Ponder and tight end Kyle Rudolph.

This offseason General Manager Rick Spielman devoted a good portion of his resources towards improving the roster on the offensive side of the ball.  Four of their top six picks were spent on offensive players, including a star left tackle and two receivers.  Receiver Jerome Simpson, tight end John Carlson, and offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz were among the only notable free agency moves the team made.

So what has the improvement been?

The Vikings offense of 2012, approaching the toughest part of their schedule, is currently:

17th in points scored (improved from 2010)

22nd in yards gained (improved)

5th in rushing (improved)

30th in passing (regressed)

So, with much being made about Christian Ponder’s lack of production, people are starting to wonder if Bill Musgrave is on the verge of being dismissed.  In a season and a half, Musgrave has had three quarterbacks start in his offense (McNabb, Webb, and Ponder) and none of seen any overwhelming success to speak of.

If Ponder and company, possibly without Percy Harvin, dial up another stinker on Sunday against the Lions then the echoes of boos will be ringing well into the Vikings bye week.  This leads us to today’s question of the week.

So, here is a chance to cast one more vote today:

Lessons Learned: Managing Expectations

November 5, 2012, by 7 comments

“Things would have to go very poorly for the Vikings in the first half of the season in order for us to feel fully eliminated from the playoffs heading into week 10. Of the last seven games of the season, five of those will be played against divisional opponents. Beating our NFC North foes is the best way to climb into playoff contention, so hope is likely to cling for quite some time this season.”

A very wise blogger wrote that paragraph back in April when the 2012 schedule was announced.  A very foolish blogger, however, forgot to heed his own warning and tossed the idea of a “rebuilding team” aside and fully embraced the idea that this Vikings team was (cliché alert!) “for real.”

It was far too easy to get swept away by the Vikings success after putting the week two loss to Indy in the rear view mirror and placing that unexpected beat down of the Niners on the forefront of our minds.

Say what you will about strength of schedule analysis and how inaccurate such thinking is, but there is no doubt that the Vikings were able to take advantage of a weak schedule early on, struggled against tougher opponents of late, and have yet to face their toughest opponents.

It duped some of us, including me.

The early success of the Vikings has created confusing feelings and opinions amongst the fanbase, as the team suddenly went from “project” to “contender” and are well on their way to being labeled “pretenders.”

The Vikings themselves are partially to blame, as their job is to sell their product, and they had no problems pointing out their successes on the field in order to generate some excitement.

The truth, as we have found out here lately, is that this team never actually became anything other than a project.  In the end, their win total is only going to be a gauge to measure how far this project has to go before they can legitimately be considered a contender.

Am I throwing in the towel?  Absolutley not.

I will still cheer and shout, curse and yell, as my team suits up on future Sundays.  However, I have had to give myself the reality check that many Vikings need and remind myself that this is a young team, with plenty of positives to point out, that is still in the process of growing into what will one day be a consistently dominant force.

Luckily for us Vikings fans, our expectations are now so low that they don’t really need to be managed, and Leslie Frazier’s team can really only overachieve from here on out in the eyes of their most critical observers.

Five Keys To The Game

November 4, 2012, by 1 comment

I have had a hectic week and while I fully intended to produce a full “Preview” segment like normal, but I ran out of time.  I still wanted to get something up in advance of this game, however, as it stands to be a turning point type of matchup for this 2012 Vikings team.

It could be a turn for the best, but it could also be a turn for the worst.

Here are five items I consider to be the most important this afternoon:

1.  Time To Go To Bat

Seattle’s starting rookie quarterback Russell Wilson has, thus far in his young career, overcome the pre-Draft knock on him that he is too short.  It is time for that to stop.  Wilson has been an impressive rookie in an already impressive class of quarterbacks, but the Vikings must game plan to shut him down despite the absence of cornerback Chris Cook.

One way they can do that is to use their big defensive linemen to get into the throwing lanes and get their hands in the air.  Brian Robison put on a clinic last week in terms of batting passes, and Jared Allen and Kevin Williams have both made highlight reels in the past by doing this, so we know this isn’t an original idea for the Vikings defense.

Wilson is short.  He may be succeeding anyways, but his passes are more susceptible to being batted down at the line of scrimmage… that is just physics.  The Vikings need to give their secondary some help by employing the long arms of Robison and company this afternoon.

2.  Tackle Well, Live Longer

The Vikings cannot completely stop Seahawk’s running back Marshawn Lynch, but they can endeavor to contain him.

The “Beast” will not be contained, however, if the Vikings continue to tackle (or, perhaps, not tackle) the way they have been the last three weeks.  They missed 17 tackles last week, which resulted in Doug Martin’s monster game on Thursday Night Football.

Chad Greenway, Jasper Brinkley, and Erin Henderson have their work cut out for them this week as they face the running back who is closest to Adrian Peterson for the NFL rushing lead.

3.  Run, Run, Run… and then Run Some More

I’m going to skip the Ponder-doubting that has overwhelmed Vikings Nation in the past few weeks.

Instead, I want to remember a Kansas City team that a few years ago won a significant amount of football game by embracing their stellar running game to the fullest.  Remember when the Chiefs ran Jamal Charles and Thomas Jones on what seemed like every down, including fourth, to move the chains in a safe and time-consuming manner?  I want to see that type of dedication to the run game with the Vikings, who are very well built to do it.

The best way to win this game, and shut up that damned 12th man, is to shove Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart down their throats for seven minutes at a time.

4.  Start Utilizing Rudolph… For Real

Second year tight end Kyle Rudolph is having a decent season, particularly in terms of touchdown catches.  However, I think there is still plenty of untapped potential here.

The Seahawks boast a number of young, high-quality cornerbacks and that could spell trouble for mediocre performers like Jerome Simpson and Michael Jenkins.

Getting the ball to Percy Harvin is always a must, but Rudolph needs to start being utilized more in the every down passing game.  He needs to be running seam routes and he needs to be a threat no matter where the Vikings are on the field.

Feed him the ball, Musgrave.

5.  Special Teams Must Be Special Today

Most of you probably think I’m going to talk about Percy Harvin’s returns or Blair Walsh’s big leg, and that is certainly part of it.

I think both of these teams, however, have very dangerous threats on special teams and the biggest point of emphasis needs to be the Vikings ability to play mistake-free football on the coverage unit.  Leon Washington has a habit of embarrassing opponents, and plllllease Football Gods… don’t let it be the Vikings.

PREDICTION:

I think another close one is in store for us here, and I worry about the outcome, but I still think this Vikings team will be 6-3 in a few hours.  As long as common sense is utilized by the Vikings coaching staff, and the players execute like we know they can, they can come out of this game with another win.

My prediction:  22-17, Vikings

Good Old Fashioned Irresponsible Speculation: Trade Deadline

October 31, 2012, by 4 comments

The NFL extended the NFL trade deadline to Thursday due to Hurricane Sandy shutting down the league offices, so we got a bonus two days of speculation that will almost certainly end up being anticlimactic.

Leslie Frazier somewhat fueled the fire on Wednesday, however, when he was asked about the open roster spot resulting from Chris Cook’s injury status.

“Without giving too much away, the trade deadline is Thursday, so you want to do everything you can,” Frazier said. “I know Rick (Spielman) and our personnel department is doing everything we can to improve our team and help our team be better. You want to exhaust all avenues in doing that.”

It is suspicious that the Vikings have yet to fill Cook’s spot but it is unlikely that the Vikings make any major moves on Thursday.  Still, speculation is fun, so let’s do some of that:

Michael Vick:  Some have brought this idea up.  I won’t.

Tim Tebow:  See: “Michael Vick.”

Steve Smith:  Pro Football Talk started this one off by suggesting the Panthers receiver could be an answer to the Vikings passing woes.  I don’t buy it.  Tell me where an aging receiver with questionable leadership abilities fits into a rebuilding roster.

Dwayne Bowe:  The player makes great sense.  The draft pick compensation and subsequent contract extension probably wouldn’t.

Ramses Barden:  This one is an Adam Warwas special.  Tremendous potential (with low mileage) that has been stuck behind Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, and Victor Cruz in recent years.  At 6’ 6” and 224 pounds, Barden could possibly be pried away from a Giants team that seems to view him as more of a luxury than a necessity and lend the Vikings deep game a helping hand.

Toby Gerhart:  Sell?  That’s right, I said it.  The Vikings have gradually been taking more and more of the load away from Gerhart and there are a number of teams hungry for running backs right now.  The market is flooded with aging and expensive veteran backs, so perhaps Gerhart would represent a more attractive option to certain teams.

Okay, what off-the-wall speculation do you guys have for me?  Only a few more hours to throw something out there!

Links Of The Week: Moving Towards Seattle

October 30, 2012, by 15 comments

First off, I want to give a genuine and heartfelt welcome to Gil, our newest writer.  I admire Gil’s ability to write for so many different outlets and produce such interesting content, and I think he will bring another fresh perspective to VT as we wade through this very intriguing 2012 season.  Glad to have you aboard, sir!

Second, happy birthday Brett!

Okay, after a very disappointing home loss to Tampa, the Vikings will soon pack their bags and head to the Pacific Northwest to take on the Seattle Seahawks. Whether we are talking about the loss that is in the past, or the game that is in the future, there is a ton of great content out there right now and I wanted to round up the best of the best for you:

  • The Vikings have brought in a punter for a workout which is interesting because the Vikings have one of the most popular/unpopular punters ever.
  • An update on how the whole stadium thing is progressing.  SPOILER:  At this point, it kind of looks like a breakfast danish.
  • Throughout his career Adrian Peterson has set a lot of bars very high, but this one is a new accomplishment.
  • I know this is predictable quarterback-speak, but Christian Ponder has the right attitude right now.
  • There are at least two very good reasons to expect that the Vikings will qualify for the postseason.
  • 17 missed tackles.  That is one stat that will jump out to you in this article about Thursday’s loss to Tampa Bay.
  • A “source” told PFT that opposing defenses have figured out Christian Ponder.
  • Super famous Viking Territory writer Gil Alcaraz IV takes a look at just how explosive Percy Harvin has been in 2012.
  • The topic of this article is so outlandish I can’t even bring myself to type the general subject description to tell you what it is about.
  • Some took Thursday night’s performance as verification that Christian Ponder is not, I repeat: is NOT, the franchise quarterback the Vikings have been looking for.
  • While the Vikings lost Chris Cook last week, Mistral Raymond appears to be making his way back to 100%.
  • Sidney Rice is healthy and looking for a big game against his former team.
  • Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson may prove to be a tough combination for a struggling Vikings defense.
  • This is just simply cool.  Check it out.
  • Leslie Frazier refuses to single out his quarterback and says the entire offense needs to step up.
  • According to my math, Bryant McKinnie has to pay up for about 3,750 lap dances.
  • Route running was a point of emphasis during this week’s practices.

Links Of The Week: Tampa Bay Coming Up

October 24, 2012, by 7 comments

I don’t like this short week stuff.  The Vikings only get one practice to prepare for their next opponent, and hack bloggers only get three days to speculate about the outcome.  Then, after tomorrow night’s game, it will feel like forever before we get to see our Vikes play again.

Hey, by the way, lets plan on meeting right here at kickoff for a game time Live Chat!

Okay, onto this week’s links:

WEEK EIGHT PREVIEW: Thursday Against The Bucs

October 23, 2012, by 6 comments

The Vikings (5-2) are headed to prime time on Thursday night, as the will play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4), a division rival from days long passed.

The Bucs are coming off of a devastating last-second loss to New Orleans, while the Vikings continue to overcome adversity and turn heads during a supposed “rebuilding” year.

Just as a loss would cause lost hope in Tampa, a win here would really get Minnesota’s fan base buzzing about the possibility of a postseason appearance.  Let’s take a look at what all might end up deciding the outcome of this Thursday Night showdown.

Continue Reading →