Speculation

Clarifying The Status Of A Few Players

January 2, 2013, by 1 comment

Three players.  The undetermined futures.  Three attempts at an answer.

Antoine Winfield

As readers pointed out to me last night, I was wr-wr-wr-wr-mistaken in saying that Antoine Winfield would be playing for a $3 million salary next season.  Winfield played enough snaps this season to trigger an escalator for 2013, and reverse a de-escalator for 2012, and he will be owed $7.25 million if the Vikings keep him next season.

The way Winfield has been playing at age 35, there is little reason other than the salary to expect the Vikings to part ways with him, as he has arguably been as valuable as any member of this defense.  Evidence of this can be seen by watching last weekend’s game and seeing the passing game of the Packers pick up after Winfield made his early exit.

All indications are that Winfield will do everything possible to play this Saturday night, and he has also reportedly has no interest in hanging up his cleats after this season.  Depending on just how much longer Winfield plans on playing may determine his willingness to renegotiate a contract extension to reduce his 2013 cap number.

Percy Harvin

I got this question more than once since the Vikings qualified for the postseason, and the answer is “no,” Percy Harvin cannot be reactivated from the injured reserve and make a playoff appearance.  In a new rule, teams are allowed to designate one player per season as “eligible for return” when they are placed on injured reserve, but the Vikings has already used this designation on Chris Cook prior to Harvin’s injury.  Cook, of course, has since been able to return and have an impact in the last two games.

Disclaimer:  The rest of this is 100% pure speculation.

Harvin suffered a ligament tear in his ankle and was placed on injured reserve on December 5th, a time when the Vikings playoff hopes looked to be all but dead.  He has since had an emergency appendectomy.

What isn’t know, however, is whether or not Harvin would otherwise be healthy enough to return at some point during a playoff run if the rules allowed it.  Earlier in December, there was some speculation that Harvin has once again grown disgruntled with the Vikings brass and his decision to rehab in Florida instead of Minnesota will only fuel such speculation, whether it is founded or otherwise.

I just can’t help but wonder if we will soon be getting word from Harvin, via Twitter of course, that he feels healthy enough to play football and wishes he were on the field.

This type of development would prove that Harvin is not happy with the Vikings, but also divide a fan base with half of them wondering if Leslie Frazier and Rick Spielman prematurely ending his season was a huge blunder.  After all, guys like defensive end George Johnson, who found a roster spot thanks to Harvin’s absence, haven’t exactly had a huge impact at the bottom of the roster.  A guy like Harvin could potentially be a game changer at any point in any game.

His future with the team remains a mystery, but I expect we’ll be hearing much more very soon.

Jerome Simpson

A troubled receiver receives a prove-it deal in Minnesota.  Said receiver proceeds to get himself constantly hurt and underperform greatly.  If that wasn’t enough to guarantee his ticket out of town following the season, then calling one of the local media’s most respected beat writers a “douchebag” ought to do the trick.

Tom Pelissero of 1500 ESPN said that on Tuesday Jerome Simpson, for unknown reasons, called him a douchebag and that Leslie Frazier later called the reporter to apologize for his receiver’s words.

Now, I don’t know Pelissero personally, but I have spoken with him on a couple of occasions and interacted with him plenty and would not characterize him as anything other than honest, opinionated, and hard working.

I don’t know the whole story, but I am guessing that if Frazier is anything like any boss I have ever had, having to call and apologize for one of his employee’s actions will not sit well with him.

2013’s Opponents Are Known

January 1, 2013, by 27 comments

It feels wrong to already cast a gaze towards next season with a playoff game only four days away, but I wanted to point out that next year’s opponents are known.

Home: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Redskins, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers

Away: Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals

There are a few things that jump out to me about this schedule.  First, it should be noted that the “home” game against the Steelers will indeed be played in London.  Obviously, that means home field advantage will not be at its normal heights and, in fact, the international stardom that the Steelers possess could mean the crowd is affecting the game in their favor.

Second, I can’t help but notice the plethora of mobile quarterbacks that will (most likely) face the Vikings.  Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers will of course be on the schedule twice.  Outside of them is RGIII, Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, and Russell Wilson.  I’m not including Michael Vick because he is likely to be out in Philadelphia and I have no idea where he’ll end up.

Mobile quarterbacks have been an issue for the 2012 Vikings.  They lost games to Rodgers, Cutler, Andrew Luck, RGIII, Josh Freeman, and Wilson.  For the mathematicians in the group, all six of the Vikings losses were delivered by these shifty signal callers.

Of course, more recently, the Vikings have found success against Cutler and Rodgers at home, but otherwise their victories came against quarterbacks that aren’t really considered major flight risks.

The 2013 schedule pits us against running quarterbacks in nine matchups and I suspect this will need to be a point of emphasis this offseason, both in coaching current players and deciding which ones to add.

I suspect that Antoine Winfield, if he decides to continue playing, will be paid his $3 million salary without question from the Vikings.  They will also need to bolster the middle of their defense with smart and athletic players that can play instinctively against these quarterbacks, and have the range to shut down their attempts.

I already thought that defensive tackle, linebacker, and strong safety were needs this upcoming offseason.  After seeing this schedule, I am even more sure that upgrades will be needed.

Some Observations To Chew On

January 1, 2013, by 33 comments

What can I say, this is awesome!  A year removed from a three win season, the Minnesota Vikings are in the playoffs, while Detroit and Chicago are seeing heads roll.  Like I said, this is awesome!

I have been unable to think of a specific “format” to follow this week when it comes to writing on this site, so to kick things off I want to just offer up a few observations pertaining to last week’s victory over Green Bay and this week’s trip to Green Bay.

Here we go:

Was That Progress We Saw?

I am certain that any evaluators with complicated analysis and formulas for grading players will be giving Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder his highest marks of his career for his latest performance.  Ponder was 16 of 28 for 234 yards and three touchdowns, posting a career high passer rating of 120.2.  Most importantly, he did not turn the ball over at all and completed some crucial third down passes that kept Adrian Peterson on the field, and Aaron Rodgers off of it.

Some Negative Nellies out there (i.e. Me) might be quick to point out that Ponder had some luck aid his efforts and also made a number of questionable throws, but there is no denying that what we saw on Sunday was progress, or at the very least something that looked like progress.

For the sake of starting the new year on positive notes I will not point out the negatives and instead focus on what I thought was Ponder’s best throw of the season.  The fourth quarter bomb to Jarius Wright, that went for 45 yards and set up a touchdown, was a work of art.  So far this season, I have not seen Ponder confidently stand in the pocket and step into a throw the way he did on that one.

As most of you reading this know, I am not a 100% sold on this kid, but at the same time it is obvious he isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.  So, it only stands to reason, us fans should be thrilled to witness the progress we did at the most opportune time possible.

Now we get to include post season play in Ponder’s evaluation, which can only be viewed as a bonus when this team is forced to move on with self-evaluation.

Imagine The Possibilities

I don’t want to get too far ahead of myself here, but I want to say this anyways:  If there is one team in these playoffs I feel the Vikings matchup great against it is the Atlanta Falcons.

Why do I bring that up?

Well, if the Vikings manage to come out of Saturday’s game as victors; their reward will be a trip to Atlanta to take on the Falcons.  In that case, I would strongly predict a win because I feel that strongly about the matchup.

I’m not saying it would be easy, but what I am trying to say here is that it is not inconceivable to me that this team could indeed end up playing in the NFC Championship Game.

A Matter Of Exploitation

Green Bay may not employ all of the same strategies in the upcoming game that they did on Sunday, but if it was pretty obvious what they tried to do to the Vikings… exploit their weaknesses.

The Packers picked on A.J. Jefferson as the weakest link in the secondary.  Once Antoine Winfield had to leave due to pain in his broken hand, it was reserve cornerback Marcus Sherels that was viciously targeted.  As a result, Aaron Rodgers completed 70% of his passes for 365 yards and four touchdowns.  It worked, but just not well enough.

On defense, the Packers schemed to have monster nose tackle B.J. Raji bull rush on obvious running downs and ensured he was lined up against Brandon Fusco, the Vikings weakest link along the offensive line.  Raji was consistently getting penetration and made a number of big stops as a result.  It worked, but just not well enough.

The health of certain players, particularly Winfield, will be of great importance as the Wild Card weekend draws nearer.

Special Teams Worries

Jeremy Ross has been unable to beat out Randall Cobb as the primary return man in Green Bay, but Cobb’s injury that forced him out of the week 17 lineup gave Ross an opportunity and he took full advantage of it.

Ross averaged 28 yards on three kick returns, including a 44 yarder that he nearly took to the house.  He also averaged a whopping 20 yards on two punt returns.  Ross is essentially the only return man to shred yardage out of the otherwise stout coverage unit of the Vikings this season.

While the rest of the team is getting hot, however, it was worrisome to see the coverage unit struggle so much heading into the playoffs.  The importance of special teams cannot be underestimated, especially for a team that really needs all three phases of the game to be in synch in order to continue their winning streak.

Leslie Frazier Deserves No Small Amount Of Credit

Before the Vikings pay anyone on this roster, Zygi Wilf and Rick Spielman really need to get Leslie Frazier’s contract extended well into the future.

He has handled so many situations with grace, grace that kept things from becoming a media circus, that I just think he is a huge breath of fresh air after the Childress era.

If Frazier has really been able to successfully mentor Everson Griffen, Chris Cook, and Jerome Felton into men of character, after they each made serious off field transgressions, then their success this season (of which there has been plenty) should be directly attributed to his abilities as a head coach.

If Christian Ponder is really going to become the franchise quarterback that flashed last Sunday, then his devotion during the trying times of November should be reciprocated from above.

If Adrian Peterson’s incredible season can ever possibly be duplicated or improved upon in the future, then why not stick with the guy that oversaw the action this season?

If so many rookies can be coached up and produce in such a big way, like they have this season, then why would you want to leave that coaching staff in any sort of limbo state?

It is time for Frazier to be rewarded.  Actually, scratch that, it was time for him to be rewarded four wins ago.

Lessons Learned: Sometimes Optimism Wins

December 25, 2012, by 54 comments

I’ll be the first to admit it.

I declared the Vikings dead before they were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.  I thought the loss to the Packers at Lambeau Field, and the fashion in which they (Christian Ponder) lost it was an indicator for how the rest of the season would go.

If I had been right, I would have been labeled a realist.  Now that I am one win away from being wrong, I am very close to being an admitted pessimist.  Never, until now, have I thought of myself as a possible pessimist when it comes to my Vikings, but always felt I was a realist.

I still stand by my assertion that Christian Ponder has thus far done nothing to show us he is a franchise quarterback, but the Vikings are now playing football in a way, as a team, that could see them continue their winning streak should it continue.

Leslie Frazier.  A number of players.  A handful of readers here at VT.  They, you, are all very close to being able to say “I told you so” and I couldn’t be more thrilled about it.

Once again setting aside any pessimism or homerism, the realist in me has decided that this team, warts and all, can beat Green Bay this weekend and qualify for the postseason.  They can do some damage in January if given the chance.

They can continue to embarrass the pessimist and the realists alike.

And that kicks ass.

Grading Spielman’s First Offseason: Top Half Of 2012 Draft

December 25, 2012, by 22 comments

Last week I took a trip down memory lane to see just how well, or as the case may be not well, Rick Spielman fared in his first attempt at free agency as the General Manager of the Minnesota Vikings.  That article and the grades can be found by clicking here.

Even more important than free agency, at least for a rebuilding franchise, is the NFL Draft.  In 2012 the Vikings made 10 selections and I want to take a look at the first half of those.  Here are the individual breakdowns:

1.4 Matt Kalil, LT:  One goal of the 2012 offseason was all too obvious to anybody that paid the least bit of attention.  Upgrade at the left tackle position, kick Charlie Johnson inside, and keep Christian Ponder healthy for 17 weeks.

Mission accomplished.

As a rookie Matt Kalil has not only impressed, he has dominated in a way that shoots him to the top five of anybody’s rankings of NFL left tackles.  Christian Ponder has survived an entire season, in large part because of Kalil’s near-perfect protection, and Kalil has also contributed plenty to Adrian Peterson’s incredible year.  Kalil is the type of player, barring major injury, that the Vikings can look forward to sending to the Pro Bowl year after year.

Oh, and they traded back a spot for extra picks just before selecting him.

GRADE:  A+

1.29 Harrison Smith, S:  The trade back to number four gave the Vikings some extra firepower for the remainder of the Draft and it didn’t take long for Spielman to cash some of that in and grab Notre Dame’s stud safety Harrison Smith.

Smith was a welcomed sight for Vikings fans that had simply had it with watching mediocre-at-the-very-best play from the team’s safeties ever since Darren Sharper stopped being a good football player.

Smith has added quite the spark to this defense and is already making his mark in Vikings lore with 98 tackles, a sack, 11 broken up passes, three interceptions, two touchdowns, a forced fumble, plenty of fines, and an ejection.

Smith isn’t always perfect, but no safety ever is, especially in a cover-2 defense.  Smith could improve his follow through on tackling a bit, and has a few other areas to refine, but the kid is just plain exciting to watch.  A bruiser with ball skills was just what this Vikings defense needed to hang with the likes of Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall and [insert any cheese curd receiver here].

This pick has, at least this year, been a major success despite the added cost of trading up.  The only argument against this move of any merit is that the Vikings could have drafted cornerback Casey Heyward, who is having a Rookie of the Year type of season for Green Bay, by simply staying put where they were in the second round.

GRADE:  A

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Saturday Moves Are Indicators

December 22, 2012, by 3 comments

The Vikings made a flurry of moves on Saturday, the night before they face off against the Texans in Houston, and each one indicates a little a nugget of importance.

CB Chris Cook Activated:  If the Vikings are going to make the playoffs then they need all of the stars to align just right over the next two weeks.  One of those stars in already in place as Chris Cook has been removed from the Injured Reserve and activated.  Assuming he plays, at least on a part time basis, he will line up against monster receiver Andre Johnson.  Ever since Cook was injured, the Vikings have clearly struggled a lot more against top flight receivers, so his presence against the Texans could be a major boost.

DE George Johnson Activated From Practice Squad:  Johnson probably won’t be active on Sunday, but the move to add depth at the end position tells us that injured Brian Robison is highly unlikely to play.  Everson Griffen will start in Robison’s place.

G Mark Asper Waived:  Ever since signing offensive tackle Troy Kropog the Vikings have had more offensive linemen on the roster than they would normally carry.  Apparently the Vikings think Kropog offers them more than Asper, who never saw action this season, and so they opted to jettison Asper.  Asper, however, could be a very good candidate to return in the very near future.

TE Allen Reisner Waived:  Reisner comes and Reisner goes.  This has happened enough times that I wouldn’t read anything into it other than he is clearly less valued than rookie Rhett Ellison.

With Harvin, A Plethora Of Options Exist At This Moment

December 21, 2012, by 24 comments

Back in April The Sporting News decided to dig into the past and expose some not-so-flattering stories about Percy Harvin, Urban Meyer, and the Florida program in general.  Their findings illuminated Harvin as an entitled young man with a short temper.

At the time, the piece had the feel of a hit job of sorts, and many questioned the odd timing of this information coming out.

With a recent report from 1500 ESPN describing yet another confrontation between the uber-talented receiver and his current coach, Harvin’s status as a Viking is yet again being called into question.

Reports of the past have included throwing a college coach on the ground and putting hands around his neck, testing positive for marijuana prior to the NFL Scouting Combine, throwing a weight at former head coach Brad Childress, and requesting a trade prior to this season before performing a sudden about-face.  That list would be enough to call any player unreliable, and we haven’t even started talking about his long list of injury and health issues.

Some Vikings fans are going to want to bury memories of Randy Moss departing Minnesota (twice) in their subconscious and assume the Vikings will “pay the man” and that Harvin will get a deal that makes him a Viking for life.

The phrase “where there is smoke there is fire” comes to mind, however.  And the player that has earned the nickname “Cheech” in this corner of the internet seems to always be surrounded by plenty of smoke.

Still, lots of options exist for how this could play out and I want to take a second to look at each one (and there could be more) in great detail.

Pay The Man

The Vikings may never be certain that they have made Harvin permanently happy in Minnesota, but they can always try and then hope for the best, and the best way to do that is by getting out the checkbook.

Entering the final year of his rookie deal Harvin is set to make a paltry $1.55 million in 2013.  Considering the impact he can have on a football game, and his particular need for long term financial security as an injury prone player, it isn’t surprising that Harvin would be willing to go to battle against the Vikings front office in an effort to get guaranteed money.

The question facing the Vikings will be just how much money they are willing to pay their 24 year old game changer.  Agent Joel Segal has been known to milk team’s for all they are worth in regards to his top clients.  Evidence in this can be found in the contracts for Michael Vick (6 years, $100 million), Chris Johnson (6 year, $55 million), and DeAngelo Hall (6 year, $55 million).

More specifically, Segal raided plenty of coffers with receivers of lesser talent than Harvin which include Josh Morgan (2 years, $11.5 million), Marques Colston (5 years, $36.3 million), and Pierre Garcon (5 years, $42.5 million).  Each of these contracts came with considerable, to say the least, guarantees.

He’s been at it for a long time, too, and in 1999 he made Antonio Freeman the highest paid receiver in NFL history with a seven year deal worth $42 million.

I suspect Harvin, on a five year deal, would demand somewhere in the neighborhood of $55 million with about $25 million guaranteed.  That is a hefty price indeed, but one the Vikings might have to pay if they don’t want to reduce their receiver group down to absolutely nothing, a possibility that both Harvin and his agent are well aware of.

The thing to keep in mind about taking on that big of a cap hit for Harvin is that there really is no team in the NFL that can, or does, pay two big money receivers.  With the Vikings obviously needing help at the position, a blockbuster contract for Harvin would be quite the commitment to him and an acceptance that any other real help is going to have to come in the NFL Draft or in the form of low-cost free agent fliers.

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