Analysis

REACTION AND GRADES: Day One

April 27, 2012, by 14 comments

On Thursday, the Vikings weeks of posturing ended up right back where everyone assumed it began, with them selecting USC left tackle Matt Kalil with their first pick in the 2012 NFL Draft.  The only caveat was, after picking up three extra picks, he was selected one spot later than we all expected.

While Rick Spielman had enough media types bamboozled into thinking they might take LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne, but instead they took the player they likely targeted all along.  Then, they snuck into the end of the first round and selected Notre Dame safety Harrison Smith.

Following the Draft I will dust off my old “Welcome to the Big Show” features and we’ll look at every prospect selected very closely.  For now, however, I want to provide some instant reaction to the selections and give you an idea for how I feel on each guy.

MATT KALIL

The Vikings expect that they have found themselves a cornerstone for the organization that will be around for at least a decade, protecting quarterbacks and paving paths for runners.

Kalil’s real strength matches well with the weaknesses of the Vikings current tackles.  He is a superb pass protector who utilizes his athleticism and quick feet to ensure that if the quarterback gets hit, it won’t be from his side.  USC often left Kalil by himself and he held up great despite the lack of help.

His run blocking has been pointed out by many analysts as needing improvement, but somewhere along the line “needing improvement” turned into “a huge weakness” within media circles.  The truth is, Kalil’s smaller frame and upright style seldom affected his game negatively in college, and his ability to get to the second and third level in the run game to take on linebackers and safeties far outweighs any negatives.  Sure, he can add some bulk and a little strength (which he probably will) but there is no denying that this kid is an elite prospect as a left tackle.

Left tackle is where he will immediately be plugged in.  With Kalil manning that spot, the Vikings then plan to slide Charlie Johnson inside to left guard, thus upgrading two positions with one choice.

I couldn’t be happier about this pick and while he won’t single-handedly win Minnesota a Super Bowl, he should prove to be a huge step in the right direction for this offense that needs to be built around Christian Ponder and Adrian Peterson.

Adam’s Grade:  A+

HARRISON SMITH

The Vikings desperately needed help at the safety position.  If they went into the season with Jamarca Sanford and Mistral Raymond as their starters, well, I just wouldn’t be expecting much… we’ll put it that way.

To me, the top two safety prospects in this Draft were clearly Mark Barron from Alabama and Harrison Smith from Notre Dame.  After that, I felt like there was a great disparity between them and the second tier of safeties.

Barron went to the Bucs very early on in the Draft and the Vikings gave up a fourth rounder to move to the 29th spot from their original second round position and grabbed Smith.  In doing so, they filled a huge need with a very solid prospect.

Smith has a nice, big frame and is known to be kind of a jack-of-all-trades type of player.  The Vikings liked the versatility from what they saw of him at the Senior Bowl.  His athleticism and range should be of benefit to a Vikings secondary that needs some positives added to it.  He truly is a sideline-to-sideline type of player.

Having even played some linebacker in the past, the Vikings surely like Smith’s tackling abilities and physical style of play.  He is at his best when playing downhill and is plenty capable of delivering a jarring hit.  Smith will event present the Vikings with a good ability to blitz on occasion.

Most attractive, however, were the leadership abilities he displayed within Notre Dame’s defense.  He is known as an ultra-competitive guy that is going to give you everything he’s got and then some.

There has been some knocks on his coverage ability, however, which would be why he never was considered a “blue chip” type of player.  His tape reveals some stiffness in his game and his interception totals went from seven as a junior to none as a senior.

Overall, Smith seems like a day one starter, especially for the Vikings.  He has room for improvement, but looks to be like an investment that could be well worth it.  I am looking forward to seeing him matchup against some of those big tight ends in our division.

The Vikings filled a need and got a very promising prospect.  Tough to find many complaints about this one, other than perhaps the fact that they had to trade up to get him.

Adam’s Grade:  A-

LIVE CHAT TRANSCRIPT: Day One

April 27, 2012, by No comments yet

Well, the first day of the 2012 NFL Draft turned out to be quite exciting for us Vikings fans.

Our live chat was a blast and a huge thanks to Brett, Malte, and Gil from thevikingden.com for all of the hard work keeping things running smoothly!

Here is the transcript from the live chat so that it can always be a part of our permanent record and also to let you review some reactions if that interests you:

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Assessing The Value: Trading Up

April 27, 2012, by 6 comments

Rick Spielman and the Vikings enjoyed their success in the first round that they decided to jump back into for a little more.

After completing a no-brainer trade at the top of the first round (read my assessment here), the team engaged in something a little more risky towards the end of the evening.

The Vikings traded their second round pick (#35) and their original fourth round pick (#98) for the Ravens first rounder (#29) and grabbed Notre Dame safety Harrison Smith.  Targeting Smith wasn’t a huge surprise as he has been the apple of many Vikings fans’ eye for months now, the team has a thing for Notre Dame players, and safety was arguably the team’s biggest need.

We will get into a more in-depth analysis of what Smith brings to the team a little later on, but from a trade value standpoint what exactly did the Vikings do?

According to the old Jimmy Johnson trade chart, found on this page, the Vikings gained 90 value points by moving from 35 to 29.  However, the fourth rounder they gave up is valued at 108 points so the Vikings overpaid a tad, according to this chart.

The newer “Harvard Chart” that claims to account for factors more accurately, including the new CBA, values the 29th pick at 208.7 points.  The 35th and 98th picks combine, according to this chart, for a point value of 268.5.  This chart suggests that Vikings overpaid by more than the old trade chart suggests, but both indicate that they overpaid.

The overpayment is slight, however, and the Vikings obviously targeted Smith enough to move up at all.  If they weren’t quite as smitten with the kid, then they probably would have been content to just sit back and see if he was there as an option at 35.

They got their guy, and it is hard to fault them for that even if they overpaid.  Heck, a few years back, they gave up more than that to move up a short distance and grab Toby Gerhart.  So, at the very least, this trade up was an improvement.

“I guess it went well down there,” Smith said of his work with Vikings staff at the Senior Bowl. “I really like playing for those guys and took to their coaching and I think we kind of got a good feel for each other.”

The Vikings obviously got a good enough “feel” for Harrison to overpay a bit in trading up to get him.

Assessing The Value: Trading Back

April 26, 2012, by 2 comments

Rick Spielman proved a man worthy of being an NFL General Manager in his first appearance to the Vikings war room with that title.

He has been laying the ground work for months.  Telling anyone that would listen that he liked tackle Matt Kalil, receiver Justin Blackmon, and cornerback Morris Claiborne equally.

It was really a matter of simple math.  The Vikings had the third pick.  The Browns and the Bucs were sure to be candidates for the services of Trent Richardson, whom Spielman’s staff probably rated high enough to make him confident other teams rated equally as high, and the Browns were picking at four while the Bucs were at five.

By identifying three players that he supposedly graded exactly equally, and publically declaring so, he was sending a signal that he would be willing to trade backwards as low as the five spot and still be guaranteed a player from the top of his board.

The public statements were probably never aimed at the Bucs or anyone else.  Instead, the Browns were targeted from the get-go as Spielman had likely been targeting Kalil all along as many expected.  However, by stating the three players publically, the seeds were planted and the Browns couldn’t help but wonder if Spielman was serious.  If he was, then the Bucs could jump up and grab Richardson right in front of them.

There was risk involved in any of this subterfuge for Spielman, as he knew any picks he could milk out of the Browns were just a bonus as he would still be able to grab his man, Kalil.  In fact, Kalil will now be at a slightly lower salary slot which should help the salary cap situation a tiny amount over the next four years.

To me, the coolest part of all of this is just how much Spielman was then able to milk from the Browns after he sufficiently swindled them into moving up.  By moving back one space in a no-risk move, the Browns gave the Vikings an additional fourth rounder (#118), a fifth rounder (#139), and a seventh rounder (#211).  Not only does this provide the Vikings with the potential for more draftees, but it gives them added firepower to move up and target specific players they have a high value on.

According to the old Jimmy Johnson trade chart, which can be view at our trade chart page, the Vikings gave up 400 “points” by sliding back this one spot.  They, in fact, gave up nothing though because they still got the guy they wanted.  In return, the Vikings got those three picks which have a total value of 102.5 points.

In the more modernized “Harvard Chart” the Vikings only gave up 24.4 points while gaining a total value of 188.6 points from the other three picks.  It is debatable as to which chart is the most valid following the new CBA, but there is little arguing that the Vikings got something for nothing out of this deal.

Spielman was grinning from ear to ear at the presser following the Kalil pick, relishing the fact that his performance not only tricked the media but also tricked the Browns into thinking he was such a wild card.

“I didn’t undersell anyone,” Spielman said regarding his pre-Draft tactics. “I just said I like all three players.”

And that is all he had to say.

The Vikings entered Thursday with ten picks.

The first five picks weren’t even made yet and he had 12 picks left, drafted a guy he thinks will be a heck of a left tackle, and upgraded his left guard position in the meantime.

Well done, sir, very well done!

I’ll break down the trade up that came later in round one shortly.

Watching Spielman’s Presser

April 24, 2012, by 4 comments

Vikings General Manager Rick Spielman held a pre-Draft press conference Tuesday and he touched on a number of hot topics.

The whole thing can be viewed by clicking here.

I have watched it a few times now, and here are my notes:

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GUEST POST: Sleepers Of The Past

April 23, 2012, by 9 comments

[Note From Adam:  Darren Campbell of Kick Ass Blog (formerly of Grant’s Tomb) is at it again.  Darren has been kind enough to do yet another guest post here at VT and this one is certainly worth the cost of admission (which is nothing, but still…).  Make sure to give it a read and head on over to his site (by clicking here) and let him know what you thought!]

Am I obsessed with whom the Vikings will pick Thursday night with the #3 overall draft pick? Not at all. But I have devoted a few posts to the subject this winter and spring. It is an important pick. And if Vikings general manager Rick Spielman gets it right, Minnesota will get an impact player for the next decade.

He could get it wrong, too. It happens every year with teams picking high in the draft. They miss on guys. That’s why every draft pick is important and the Vikings (so far) have 10 of them. If (heavy emphasis on “if”) the team uses those picks well in this week’s college draft, the Vikings rebuilding effort will be helped enormously.

A week ago, Viking Update had two columns listing the team’s top five best and worst #1 draft picks in the past 25 years. I wanted to take that idea in another direction. Who have been the best late-round draft picks the Vikings have made during their 52 years in the league?

What follows is that list.  For the readers who are wondering what a “late round draft pick” means to me, I decided all fifth-round and beyond to be the late rounds. Not everyone will agree with that decision. We are dealing with two different types of drafts in this list. From 1961-1992 the college draft was 12 rounds. But starting in 1993, it became a seven-round draft. Perhaps the fifth round isn’t quite late enough for some people when the draft is 12 rounds. But you’ve got to start somewhere. So I started at the fifth round.

Anyway, let’s do this.

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Sunday Coin Toss: Top Draft Need

April 22, 2012, by 10 comments

Apparently everyone here at Vikings Territory loves it when Adam and I disagree on something. Our post a week ago where we went back and forth about whether or not the Vikings should trade down in the draft started quite the discussion between readers. Luckily for you all, Adam and I have different opinions quite frequently. And as such, we’ve decided to make this a recurring column where we duke it out over various topics.

As most of you probably know, Adam and I have been participating in a series of online, community mock drafts where groups of people act as the war room for NFL teams. Obviously, we’ve represented our beloved Vikings. Throughout the process, Adam and I have differed over the primary need of this franchise. A week ago, Adam ranked the Vikings needs from most desperate to not an issue. According to him, the position of safety is the #1 need of this team. In my opinion, left tackle is our most pressing demand, which is at #3 on Adam’s list. With the most important Vikings draft in recent memory literally right around the corner, what ever will Vikings management do if Adam and I can not agree on what should be the team’s priority?! Luckily for the franchise, I am blessed with the ability to persuade and argue. So, getting Adam to see the light should take no time at all.

Continue reading to see this epic battle go down.

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