Analysis

Lessons Learned: Patience Isn’t Always A Virtue

December 2, 2012, by 21 comments

The company line at Winter Park this week is going to be that the Vikings still control their own destiny, and that Christian Ponder will be the quarterback to lead this team to the playoffs.

While this is mathematically a possibility, the truth is that the Vikings playoff hopes died on Lambeau Field Sunday when Ponder nearly failed to throw for over 100 yards and had a pair of untimely interceptions that quite literally robbed his own team of hard earned points.

Sure, there are plenty of other things to point to that went wrong on Sunday.  The referees (and I hardly ever resort to this) made a number of calls that left many wondering if Ed Hochuli plans to retire in Green Bay.  Blair Walsh’s missed field goal in the fourth quarter was the nail in the coffin.  Receivers continued to struggle to get open.  Bill Musgrave once again failed to get Adrian Peterson a handoff, not even once, in the fourth quarter.

All of these things can be viewed as unacceptable, but none were more glaring than the horrendous display put on by Ponder against the team fans want to beat the most.

I can’t fault the Vikings staff for starting Ponder today, and I can’t fault them for starting him next week against Chicago, but their decision to keep Joe Webb on the bench following Ponder’s second interception has left me dumbfounded.

You want to be patient with young quarterbacks.  You want them to learn from mistakes and learn how to rebound after committing them.  You want to get a full season’s worth of game tape for evaluation purposes during the offseason.  More than anything, you want to prove everyone else wrong and let him lead you to victory.

Still, with all of those things in mind, what was expected to be gained by keeping Ponder in the game?

Joe Webb has proven to be one the NFL’s best change-up pitchers in the NFL and Ponder gave absolutely no indication that he could win this game, even with Peterson’s ridiculous numbers.  Webb, while not viewed as a viable long term option, should have been allowed to try and redeem the game and put the Vikings (and Christian Ponder) in a position to see postseason action.

Instead, the Vikings chose to place the “development” of their first round quarterback ahead of the team goal of winning a championship, and kept Ponder on the field only long enough to gain a few more yards against a prevent defense.

Whether the call was up to Leslie Frazier, Bill Musgrave, Rick Spielman, or even Zygi Wilf himself, 52 other players and an entire fan base had to suffer Sunday due to the irrational stubbornness displayed by the Minnesota Vikings.

Garbage Time: Our Newest Segment (And It Features Two Guys You Know!)

December 1, 2012, by 6 comments

It never fails.

I spend all day pouring over the Vikings game day media guide, hitting the “sort” button on some statistics page 508 different ways, and spend a couple of hours typing a preview.

Then, like clockwork, the comments from guys like “B. Grant” and “Tomb” end up being far more entertaining (and possibly more informative) than the article they were commenting on.  I recently decided to cut out the middle man, invite B. Grant and Tomb to contribute to VT on an official basis, and to my utter surprise they agreed.

So, when a topic worthy of some salty debate comes up, I am looking forward to seeing these two go back and forth.

Without further ado, I present to you the first installment of “Garbage Time” which features two of VT’s many great readers (and, now, writers).

Enjoy!

Tomb:  Christian Ponder. You probably couldn’t find a more topical debate subject for the Viking faithful in light of recent performance(s). This subject clearly requires the rigorous application of statistics, feelings, instinct, history, visceral emotion etc. It’s something that could really use a technical and measured preface to get things rolling; requires a bit of a football nerd, if you will. Luckily, Coach, ‘nerd’ is right up your alley, so I yield the floor to you. We can pretend I’m doing it as a respectful gesture to a treasured elder of VT, if it feels better. I’m happy to play along!

B. Grant:  Let’s go with the “treasured elder”, shall we? I wouldn’t want to take any of the glory of the full fledged nerd role that you will bring to these discussions.

Yes, Christian Ponder. I actually understand most of what you said there, Tomb, which in and of itself is out of the ordinary. And surprisingly enough (insert sarcastic tone) I fail to agree with much of it. The selection of a QB is not a statistical process, as numbers are a great source of being misled when it comes to evaluating a QB. No position in football is more complex than this one, and no position is more dependent on the performance of others, which is why I tend to withhold my judgment of Ponder at this time. Of greater disappointment to me this season is the offensive line, upon which all QB’s trust their very existence. I thought we would see more protection for him this year, thus giving us a better read on his potential, but alas, that has not been the case. Yes, he may be exiting the pocket a bit early at times, but that is like telling the passengers on the Titanic to wait it out, this thing will level itself off. He’s just trying to save the play in most cases. There is plenty of blame to go around for offensive (both literal and figurative) performances like this past Sunday.

I know I’ve made this difficult for you, Tomb. For any credibility in your response, a position other than “you’re absolutely right, Coach” will be a hard one to take. Do your best, Wordmaster.

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Path To The Playoffs: Week 13 Edition

December 1, 2012, by 16 comments

Talk about a squandered opportunity… Last week, I laid out the best case scenario for a Vikings effortless stroll into the postseason. There were eight games that had potential playoff implications for the Vikings. I outlined the eight teams that we needed to lose. Those eight teams lost. Every single last one of them… But of course, the most important one, our game, was a big, steaming pile of horse excrement. I know I don’t need to remind you, but I will anyway – had the Vikings won last Sunday against the Chicago Bears, we would sit atop the NFC North looking down amongst our division rivals. We would have been #1!

Oh well, can’t live in the past. Onwards to week 13 where the Vikings have another difficult road game against the Green Bay Packers. By the way, isn’t it just our luck that the Packers our coming off an absolutely embarrassing defeat to the defending champions on prime time? Just wonderful. Now we’ll get to suffer the wrath of a ticked off team two weeks in a row.

This is a big weekend for the Vikings. They could take either a humongous step forward in the conference standings or fall further backwards while our competition moves up. Let’s cut right to the chase and first take a look at what teams would represent the NFC in the playoffs if the season ended today.

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Weekend Answers To Your Questions

November 30, 2012, by 2 comments

Once again, I solicited questions from you guys and spent some time thinking about the answers.  Here are the results:

Adam, to what degree do you think poor offensive line play and a weak receiving corps are having on the performance of Christian Ponder?

Football is a team sport, no doubt about it.  The thing is, however, that football is a unique team sport in that one position is far and away more important than all of the rest.  Argue all you want, but quarterbacks make and break football teams in the modern day NFL.

Now, I’m not making excuses for the receivers dropping the football or for failings in pass protection, but Christian Ponder has to embrace the leadership role he is lucky enough to have before he flat out loses it.  He has to gather the troops, make clear his expectations, lead by example and demand more of himself with every lesson learned.

I think, especially with Harvin sidelined, Ponder has indeed drawn the short straw when it comes to receiver talent.  However, that offensive line is better than people are giving credit for, and if he stopped imagining non-existent pressure causing him to flee the pocket (and, thus, creating pressure by changing directions) I think the line holds up better than most realize.

Also, apologists can make all of the excuses they want for Ponder, but he has the best running back in football right now making life a heck of a lot easier on him than it could be.

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Links Of The Week: Packer Week #1

November 27, 2012, by 7 comments

The Vikings have officially entered survival mode (which they prefer to call “controlling their own destiny”) and will travel from one daunting task directly to another as they endevour to take down the Packers in their own house.

Let’s take a look around the web at some of the best articles regarding last week’s loss to Chicago, and the upcoming matchup in Green Bay:

  • It could be that the clock is ticking on the Leslie Frazier era in Minnesota already.
  • The Giants may have laid out a blue print for the Vikings to use against Green Bay this week.
  • Jarius Wright has been able to take advantage of his two games on the active roster in ways that the other receivers have not.
  • Christian Ponder was 0 for 10 (including an interception) on passes that went 10 yards or further down the field on Sunday.  More interesting notes right here.
  • Plain and simple:  Jerome Simpson isn’t getting it done.
  • A gallery of photos from Sunday’s loss to the Bears.
  • Perhaps dropped passes are simply the latest excuse for Christian Ponder supporters to point to.
  • Adrian Peterson’s hold on the NFL’s rushing title is now 172 yards strong.  His hold on the football, however…
  • As if the Packers needed more talent, they really struck gold with cornerback Casey Heyward, who should be avoided if at all possible.
  • The Vikings replaced Jordan Todman with undrafted running back Joe Banyard on the practice squad.
  • Toby Gerhart hasn’t been given much opportunity on the field, but that is keeping him from making a difference off of it.
  • Don’t be surprised if Greg Jennings’ return means the Packers use an empty backfield, with four receivers and a tight end, to neutralize the Vikings pass rush on Sunday.
  • The Vikings have an extensive injury report to keep an eye on this week.
  • Jerome Felton’s success has resulted in a fullback lining up in Bill Musgrave’s offense 20% more often than last season.
  • A former Vikings linebacker is running for office in Illinois, hoping to replace the recently resigned Jesse Jackson Jr.
  • Leslie Frazier describes all of Sunday’s drops as “really unacceptable.”  So there’s that.
  • In the last five games Adrian Peterson is averaging 7.4 yards per carry.  So, tell me again why he didn’t get the ball on third and short… or fourth and short.

Lessons Learned: Injuries Expose The Rebuild

November 25, 2012, by 10 comments

When the Vikings got walloped by the Chicago Bears on Sunday, I found myself really missing two players:  Percy Harvin and Chris Cook.

Harvin has been the difference maker in a number of games for the Vikings this season and was in the MVP discussion prior to the ankle injury that knocked him out three weeks ago.  The sure-handed juggernaut was greatly missed in a game that featured far too many drops and not enough explosions from the Vikings receivers.

Harvin’s direct replacement, Jarius Wright, had a decent day while hauling in a team high seven passes for 49 yards.  However, the nice birthday performance for the rookie was overshadowed by an inexcusable drop in the back of the end zone.

In week four Calvin Johnson was held to five catches and 54 yards, thanks in large part to efforts of Chris Cook.  The following week Kenny Britt had two catches for 23 yards.  No Washington receiver topped 50 yards in the next game.  Larry Fitzgerald was then held to 29 yards.  Vincent Jackson had only two catches for 40 yards on Thursday Night Football.

Cook got hurt in that game.  Since then the Vikings have faced Sidney Rice, Calvin Johnson, and Brandon Marshall.  They have combined for 28 receptions, 353 yards, and two touchdowns.

The Vikings secondary wasn’t perfect when Cook was on the field, and it isn’t absolutely disastrous without him, but it is tough to argue that they are a better unit with Cook on the field willing and able to go toe-to-toe with the NFL’s best receivers.

The injuries to Cook and Harvin have exposed what we all know the Minnesota Vikings are: A young team with consistency and depth issues that will take some time to correct.

Until then, the phrase “Next Man Up!” is a scary one for Vikings fans.

Path to the Playoffs: Week 12 Edition

November 21, 2012, by 20 comments

The Vikings have a legitimate shot at the playoffs.

Let that sink in for a second. Breath it in through your mouth and exhale it through your nose. Savor that statement because if you would have told any analyst that the Vikings would even come close to having a spot along 11 other teams in the playoffs, well… they would have laughed at you. They would have laughed at me. (I predicted the Vikings would be in contention for a playoff spot. Not right about many things, but I was right about that.)

Not many “experts” gave the Vikings a shot before the 2012 season started. The idea was that the Vikings are a rebuilding team with a star player just had his knee rebuilt and a young quarterback in the toughest division in football. These “experts” predicted the Vikings would find themselves in the cellar of the NFC North another year. Many of these “experts” still believe the Vikings have no shot.

I am here to tell you that they most definitely have a shot at the playoffs.

As you all know, the Vikings have a difficult task ahead of them. This year, the NFL wanted to make the month of December one to remember when it created its schedule. The Vikings have four division games in the next six weeks. This gives them the unique opportunity to be, as cliché as it sounds, in complete control of their own destiny. Win those remaining divisional games and they are almost definitely in the playoffs.

This is unlikely. While it would be sensational, the odds of the Vikings beating the Bears and the Packers twice each is somewhat unrealistic. I’m not saying it can’t happen… But let’s just say it would behoove us to look at the other ways the Vikings could make the playoffs.

We’re still six weeks out which means there is a lot that can happen. But it doesn’t hurt to know who we should root for and against every week to give us the best shot at the big game. So, what I would like to do each week until we either have clinched a spot or have been definitely eliminated is look at the playoff picture as it stands and go through game by game in the NFL and establish who we (Vikings fans) want to win.

First, the current NFC playoff picture:

Playoff Picture

  1. Atlanta Falcons (9-1)
  2. San Francisco 49ers (7-2-1)
  3. Green Bay Packers (7-3)
  4. New York Giants (6-4)
  5. Chicago Bears (7-3) Wildcard
  6. Seattle Seahawks (6-4) Wildcard

What We Want: Week 12

Green Bay at NY Giants: Giants win. (Obviously…)

As if you didn’t naturally already, we most definitely want the Packers to lose this weekend against the defending champions. If the Packers lose to the Giants Sunday night and the Vikings beat the Bears the Vikings will lead the NFC North with the #1 spot. Forget turkey, this is all I want for Thanksgiving.

Houston at Detroit: Houston win.

As the Lions are not completely out of the playoff picture and the Texans are not in the NFC, it’d benefit the Vikings if the Lions lost this week.

Washington at Dallas: Washington win.

This is a tough one because while the Cowboys currently are one game ahead of the Redskins and as such are a more immediate contender for a wildcard spot, the Redskins have the tiebreaker over us and we don’t play the Cowboys. Still, the odds that the Redskins rebound from their 4-6 losing record and really make a push isn’t incredibly likely. I’ll be rooting for the Cowboys to lose so they essentially will be removed from the playoff hunt.

Seattle at Miami: Miami win.

The Seahawks will likely be one of our biggest sources of competition for a playoff spot – especially since they would hold a tiebreaker over us. Go Dolphins!

Atlanta at Tampa Bay: Atlanta win.

The Falcons at 9-1 will almost definitely win their division so we don’t really need to worry about them moving forward.  The Buccaneers on the other hand will likely be vying for our wildcard spot. Like the Seahawks, since we’ve lost to the Bucs this season and they would hold a tiebreaker, it’s much better if they just lose. I’ll be rooting for a Matt Ryan rebound this weekend.

St. Louis at Arizona: St. Louis win.

Realistically, the Rams are no longer in the playoff hunt. The Cardinals, at 4-6, are almost out of the picture but it wouldn’t hurt if they lost this weekend to make our lives a little easier.

San Francisco at New Orleans: San Francisco win.

The 49ers will likely win their division which would take them out of the wildcard hunt. The Saints on the other hand are rebounding fiercely and are right behind us at #9 in the divisional standings challenging us for a wildcard spot. Let’s go Niners.

Carolina at Philadelphia: Carolina win.

This game really doesn’t have any playoff implications for us as both teams are [almost] definitely out of the picture. But, Philly has the better record (by a game) so let’s pull for the Panthers here.

So, let’s recap. We want the Giants, Texans, Redskins, Dolphins, Falcons, Rams, 49ers and Panthers to win. Or, if you are a glass half-empty type of person, we want the Packers, Lions, Cowboys, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Saints and Eagles to lose.

I’ll be back next week with an updated playoff picture and who our favorite teams should be in Week 13. If I’ve made a mistake (likely) above or you have a different opinion on who we should be cheering for this week, make it known in the comments.

Ultimately though, let’s root for the most important game this weekend… Let’s beat the Bears on Sunday.