Pieology Versus Capology: $11.1 Million Decision Looms With Kalil

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The Vikings rumor mill and speculation machine are both currently examining the situation in Minnesota regarding Matt Kalil and his $11.1 million salary for 2016. On March 9th, that salary becomes fully guaranteed and forces Rick Spielman to make a decision on the left tackle position very soon.

In a vacuum, Kalil is certainly a dubious investment when it comes to such a sizable chunk of the salary cap. However, that you’ll find someone to play the position better than him anytime soon is also a risky proposition.

The ideal situation, for both the team and the player, would probably be to come to a long-term extension agreement that lowers Kalil’s cap hit while also providing him some long-term guarantees. That also puts the Vikings in a position to again overpay, over a longer period of time, for a player that has been inconsistent (at best) so far in his career.

This week, Spielman went out of his way to compliment Kalil, but it is difficult to get a feel for Spielman’s intentions through his comments. This is especially true given that anything seems possible at each offensive line spot after the season they had last year and with new coach Tony Sparano now sitting at the head of that table.

Some media members have suggested Kalil should be released due to his cap hit, and friend of the site Luke Inman recently said he’s heard significant rumblings indicating Kalil will be released. His 2015 season wasn’t as disgustingly awful as was his 2014 season, but he left a lot to be desired along with most of the offensive line play.

I can’t say that I’m a huge fan of the price tag that comes along with Kalil, but if the Vikings are going to avoid that then they are most likely going to have to release him before his replacement is on the roster. I am sure the front office would be more comfortable having things the other way around, but that is not really an option with that March 9th deadline fast approaching.

When one casts their gaze towards free agency then everything looks to be a risky gamble. Cordy Glenn of Buffalo is clearly the best left tackle with an expiring contract, but he is also highly unlikely to make it our of Buffalo as a free agent.

Russel Okung of Seattle is another guy that brings name value, but his track record in the area of durability makes him a question mark for whatever team pays him to play. Kelvin Beachum of the Steelers is in a similar boat as Okung having suffered an ACL tear in October.

That leaves Donald Penn (Jared Allen memories) as the last possibility with real starter talent. He, however, turns 33 years old in April and wouldn’t be a long-term solution.

If the Vikings released Kalil and then couldn’t immediately land a viable starter in free agency, which seems like a distinct possibility, then they would have to leave that position all the way until Draft Weekend and possibly find the in a position to telegraph their intentions to other teams while simultaneously, perhaps, reaching on a player to fit a glaring need.

Unless Spielman has designs to trade for the first overall pick to get Ole Miss tackle Laremy Tunsil, which would be insanity to the nth degree, there is no telling what blind side blockers would be available when the Vikings are on the clock.

Even if, say, Notre Dame’s Ronnie Stanley was on the board the Vikings might covet a different player more at a different position.

In short, I’m worried about the many ways things can go wrong by releasing Kalil prior to March 9th. It is highly unlikely that anyone currently on the roster will do an adequate job if elevated to starting duties, and I don’t want to see the Vikings actually regress in the pass blocking category from 2015 to 2016. That would be ugly.

Conversely, I don’t see nearly as much problems with the Vikings searching for their future left tackle while Kalil is still on the roster being overpaid. In fact, I think that scenario makes the most sense, especially with other positions on the line potentially up for grabs.

The Vikings need to bite the bullet on Kalil’s salary for one more year and then aggressively pursue long-term solutions via free agency and the NFL Draft. If a rookie plays on the right side for one year, getting his NFL feet wet, only to take over for Kalil in 2017 then that could actually be the best possible outcome of what has suddenly become a very muddled situation.

The only thing I know for sure, however, we’ll get a lot of clarity on the situation between now and March 9th. So stay tuned.

 

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