Vikings Week 4 Preview: Offensive Match Up

The Vikings rebounded off an ugly loss to San Francisco Week 1, and the team now has two wins under its belt. As encouraging as it was to see Minnesota defeat Detroit and San Diego in back-to-back home games, Week 4 offers to be the biggest test yet for the Vikings: playing Peyton Manning and the Broncos on their home turf.

I think it’s safe to say that if the Vikings can beat Denver, they will receive some serious attention.

In case you’re wondering, the Broncos boast an incredible 23-2 home record since signing Manning in 2012. Sunday’s afternoon game will be a challenge, and it will be interesting to see how Mike Zimmer and his squad respond. Let’s take a look at how Minnesota’s offense matches up against Denver.


Offensive Line

If you would have asked me three weeks ago where I thought the offensive line would be, I’ll admit I didn’t think the unit would be performing as well as it is. In fact, the line actually ranks No. 2 in the league for yards per carry (4.81).

Last week, a couple of concerns heading into the San Diego game were (1) Brandon Fusco‘s health and (2) the number of penalties committed by the Vikings and offensive line specifically. Fortunately for the Vikings, they did well on both fronts. Fusco was cleared of any concussion symptoms and started. In addition, after the O-Line notched a pair of penalties the week prior, the unit had only one against the Chargers.

Matt Kalil had another strong performance, and the entire line did a great job of protecting Teddy Bridgewater, allowing no sacks. Remember, though—this was against a rather shoddy San Diego defense. Denver’s defense, on the other hand, is not to be taken lightly. After all, they are currently ranked No. 1 overall in the league.

Denver linebacker Brandon Marshall will especially prove a threat to Minnesota’s offense, as he leads the team with 24 tackles (20 solo), a sack and a forced fumble only three weeks into the season. At only 25 years old, sixth-round draft pick Danny Trevathan has also made his mark this year, tallying 14 solo tackles and six assists thus far.

Finally, the line will need to work especially hard to protect Bridgewater against several Denver players who have a reputation for getting to a team’s quarterback. Although Von Miller has only one sack this season, the linebacker recorded 14 sacks in 2014; it’s safe to say Miller will have his sights set on Bridgewater. Leading Denver for 2015 is veteran defensive end DeMarcus Ware, who already has 3.5 sacks over the first three games.

The 2015 patchwork offensive line has exceeded expectations so far, but Week 4 will prove the biggest obstacle yet.


Passing

We have yet to see Bridgewater really step out with his passing game, and that will need to change Sunday for the Vikings to be an offensive threat against Denver. Yes, Adrian Peterson will be key (we’ll get to that in the next section), but you can bet that the Broncos’ top-rated defense will have stopping Peterson as its No. 1 priority.

Consequently, passing must be an option. Bridgewater threw for only 121 yards against San Diego, and he’s averaged just 168.3 yards per game over the first three weeks. The second-year quarterback is far from a major concern, and I don’t doubt he will continue to develop even more as the season progresses. Brent wrote an in-depth piece on areas Bridgewater can improve on, and many of them are simple tweaks.

As far as Denver’s passing defense, it ranks No. 1 overall in the NFL. Heading into Week 4, the Broncos have already recorded 11 sacks and six interceptions. They are also only allowing 176 passing yards per game, more than Bridgewater has averaged against lesser defensive units. Besides Ware being a sacking threat, cornerback Aqib Talib will be searching for his third interception of the season.

While Bridgewater’s passing game has been sufficient over the past two weeks, the Broncos will be coming at him from all sides, and he will need to (1) remain confident and discerning in the pocket and (2) read the field to create some deeper pass plays.


Rushing

The biggest question, as always, surrounding Minnesota’s ground game is how big of a factor Peterson will be. As already stated, Zimmer will plan on Denver immediately looking to shut down AP on the run. The Broncos’ rushing defense isn’t ranked quite as high as their passing defense, but it still comes in at No. 6.

Denver has allowed its opponents an average of 82.7 yards per game; over three weeks, Peterson is averaging 97 yards per game. The veteran is coming off his biggest game of the season, and if there’s a running back who will be able to find holes in Denver’s defensive line, it will be Peterson.

That being said, the Vikings probably cannot count on 100+ yards from its star running back Sunday.


Receiving 

If there is a game Minnesota’s receivers need to come up big, it’s on the road in Denver.

Last week, I keyed in on the fact that Peterson and Kyle Rudolph had been Bridgewater’s main targets against Detroit. The receiving stats did look better against the Chargers, as Mike Wallace came in as the top receiver with 49 yards on three receptions, followed by Jarius Wright (28 yards) and then Adam Thielen (16 yards), but there were still no deep catches.

Since Peterson has been the Vikings’ biggest offensive threat thus far, Denver will focus more on the run game than the passing game. In order to have a chance at defeating the Broncos, the receiving corps will need to come up with some big catches that fans have yet to see this season. I expect Wallace to be a part of Norv Turner’s game plan, hopefully drawing some 20+ yard pass plays up the sideline.

With Wright and Charles Johnson both nursing some injuries during the week, it will be interesting to see if they are both available. Vikings fans have also anxiously been waiting for the debut of rookie Stefon Diggs, and it remains a question if he could see any action in Denver.

***

Interestingly, Sunday marks the first match up between the two teams when they both have a winning record since 2003. In that game, the Vikings entered with a 5-0 record compared to Denver’s 5-1. Following a 28-20 win, Minnesota improved to 6-0.

I would love to see a repeat of 2003 and watch the Vikings walk away with a win Sunday. However, this is the first time in the season I cannot confidently say I expect Minnesota to have the upper hand. In a game I expect to primarily be defense vs. defense, I think the Broncos will sneak away with a victory.

Prediction: Denver 17, Minnesota 14

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