The Fantasy Football Four: Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater

Image courtesy of Vikings.com
Teddy Bridgewater, QB – Minnesota Vikings

I’m going to take a page out of Teddy Bridgewater’s book and cool the hype on Minnesota’s favorite quarterback. While I believe Bridgewater will improve his game in 2015— both on the stat sheet and on film — he’s not going to light up fantasy football leagues week-in and week-out. If anything, Bridgewater is a solid choice as your backup quarterback, and a safety net if QB1 is injured or cannot play.

Earlier today, Brett joked he’d take Bridgewater first overall in his league, no matter what I wrote tonight. Though it’s not necessarily true, Brett’s joke is a sign of the optimism surrounding Bridgewater as training camp nears. After a Week 13-17 stretch that saw the rookie quarterback complete 72.1 percent of his passes and throw six touchdowns, that positive feeling is warranted.

Though Bridgewater’s the center of attention in Minnesota, he’s not letting the spotlight skew his opinion of the team, per USA Today’s Tom Pelissero:

[quote_box_center]”Right now, we’re not as good as what we think,” he said. “We know that the ceiling is very high and the expectation level is very high — not only for the players, but from a coaching staff also. We know what’s being asked of us, but we have a long way to go.”[/quote_box_center]

What’s being asked of Bridgewater in 2015? To start, he’s the Vikings’ clear-cut quarterback — no competition, no riding the bench, no learning behind a veteran. It’s his team, and while he won’t be asked to carry the offense, his responsibilities in Norv Turner’s system will likely expand this season. Fans saw a bit of this late in 2014, when Bridgewater checked to a screen against the Jets in Week 14 and led the Vikings to an overtime victory.

He’ll also receive more help from his supporting cast, including a returning Adrian Peterson. To think that Bridgewater finished the season with a 85.2 quarterback rating, without Adrian Peterson, is impressive. Imagining Peterson lining up behind Bridgewater is even more exciting, given the opportunities it will open up in the passing game.

This year, the Vikings field one of the fastest receiving corps in the league. Mike Wallace, an offseason addition from Miami, brings his talents as a deep threat to Minnesota. The popular belief is that Wallace’s speed will open up opportunities for Charles Johnson, Jarius Wright, and Kyle Rudolph underneath, but Wallace’s value is even greater closer to the goal line — in the red zone:

Surprisingly, Wallace scored 9 touchdowns in the red zone last year with Miami, and that could work wonders for Bridgewater this season. With a healthy Kyle Rudolph and Adrian Peterson in the red zone, Bridgewater will have plenty of targets to find in the end zone. Last season, he completed 72 percent of his passes in the red zone, throwing eight touchdowns and just one interception from the 20-yard-line in.

Another area where Bridgewater may improve is his third down passing — last season, he finished 18th among qualifying quarterbacks, according to Chase Stuart at Football Perspective. With 7.6 yards to go per third down throw, Bridgewater converted on 38.7 percent of his passes. His performance on third downs wasn’t disappointing, but could stand to be higher. A healthy running game will make these third down situations shorter and more manageable in Bridgewater’s second season.

Teddy’s biggest “concern”, according to executives and personnel men around the league, is his poor deep ball. But, his strengths — pocket presence, maturity, and, intermediate accuracy — outweigh what’s perceived to be a fatal flaw. According to Krauser on Twitter, Bridgewater was THE MOST accurate quarterback on passes aimed 11-30 yards down the field. He completed 60.7 percent of his passes in that range while averaging 11.5 yards per throw, outpacing his fellow rookies and matching some of the league’s “elite” quarterbacks.

With the addition of Mike Wallace, the return of Adrian Peterson, and the newfound health of Kyle Rudolph, Teddy Bridgewater has the weapons to succeed in Minnesota. If the end of the 2014 season was any indication, he’s primed to start the year a more developed player. His display of intermediate accuracy and proficiency in the red zone show that Bridgewater can succeed in the NFL’s toughest passing situations — how will these skills translate to your fantasy football team?

Fantasy Outlook

*All Fantasy Football statistics come from Footballguys.com (Standard FBG Scoring)*

Image courtesy of Football Guys

Image courtesy of Football Guys

ADP: 118/QB: 15

Bridgewater started his rookie year with a bang against Atlanta in Week 4, scoring a season-high 24.6 fantasy points. His first touchdown pass, however, didn’t come until Week 7, and through his first seven games, he threw 3 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and averaged 188 yards passing per game. In that span, Bridgewater failed to crack 20 fantasy points, making him an average QB2 during that time.

As mentioned above, Bridgewater blossomed in the final five games of the season, scoring 22+ fantasy points in three of those outings. He finally settled in behind a shaky offensive line, took command of Norv Turner’s unit, and trusted his arm down the field, which translated to success on the fantasy football scoreboard.

Looking at the schedule this season, Bridgewater appears to be primed for more productive performances, especially in the second half of the season. The Raiders, who host the Vikings in Week 10, allowed 16.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season. Then, in Week 12, the Vikings travel to Atlanta to play the Falcons, who gave up 15.9 fantasy points per game to signal callers in 2014. Bridgewater may also feast in Week 14, when in the Vikings take on the Cardinals in a Thursday Night Football matchup. The Cardinals, who lost defensive coordinator Todd Bowles this offseason, allowed 16 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last year. This stretch, from mid November to the beginning of December, may be an excellent time to make Bridgewater a surprise fantasy football starter.

Bridgewater’s attempts will jump with a full slate of games in 2015, but don’t expect Norv Turner to ride the second-year quarterback’s right arm. Adrian Peterson will demand touches after restructuring his contract this offseason, and his presence will cut into Bridgewater’s overall numbers. However, a projection along the lines of Jason Wood’s prediction:

313 Fantasy Points

332 completions, 3900 yards, 24 touchdowns, 14 interceptions
60 rushes, 240 yards, 2 touchdowns

Based on these projections, Bridgewater will finish the year just behind Matthew Stafford and ahead of Phillip Rivers. In 12-14 man leagues, Bridgewater will likely be the most coveted backup, worthy of a late round selection (8-9). In auction leagues, Bridgewater’s value is currently $5. I wouldn’t consider Minnesota’s prized quarterback to be a QB1 in any league, but he has the potential to put up excellent numbers in 2015.

There’s an interesting balance with Bridgewater — owners want him to produce and throw 30-plus touchdowns this season, but his success is predicated on the structure of the Vikings’ offense. Adrian Peterson is still one of the league’s best running backs, and he’ll demand carries. Behind Peterson, McKinnon will find opportunities on third down, and Norv Turner may rely heavily on the running game. For fans living in the “real world,” Bridgewater will be successful if he leads the Vikings to victories by protecting the football, mastering the offense, and improving his deep ball. For those living out their football fantasies online, it’s all about those touchdowns and yards!

Check back tomorrow for a bonus fantasy football selection!

 

 

 

 

Share: