What Does LeSean McCoy’s Trade Mean For Adrian Peterson?

Image courtesy of Vikings.com

The NFL is a business, plain and simple. Every Sunday from early September to February, fans have the opportunity to watch their favorite players and teams compete on football’s grandest stage. But the machinations that take place behind closed doors, in executive offices, and away from the cameras are the engines that drive the ever-popular $6-billion machine.

Loyalty has become an abstract concept in the age of $100 million quarterbacks — are players loyal to their franchises or committed to the prospects of a new contract? It’s difficult to blame players for following the money; on one hand, this is their livelihood, an increasingly-lucrative opportunity that injuries can snatch away in the blink of an eye. On the other, fans expect their favorite players, their superstars, to be “lifers” and stick with a team for the duration of their careers.

It’s a difficult balance, and one that isn’t always in the control of the superstars. As many read yesterday, Adam Schefter reported that the Philadelphia Eagles traded running back LeSean McCoy to the Buffalo Bills for linebacker Kiko Alonso:

Just this morning, the NFL Network’s Albert Breer reported that the Minnesota Vikings agreed to terms to trade Matt Cassel and a draft pick to the Buffalo Bills for two draft picks.

While players may have money on their minds, it’s the front offices who monitor contracts and salary caps like boom-or-bust stocks. If a player like Cassel, whose 2015 cap hit is $4.75 million, is too expensive to keep, he’ll most likely be traded or released (as evidenced by today’s news).

As for McCoy, all indications pointed to a rift between head coach Chip Kelly and the star running back. Although he signed a justifiable six-year, $45.615 million contract in May 2012, McCoy’s cap number of $11.95 million in 2015 was seemingly the last straw in Kelly’s decision.

Per Sports Illustrated’s Doug Farrar and the NFL Network’s LaDainian Tomlinson, McCoy’s optimism surrounding his status with the team has been waning for months:

[quote_center]”I had a chance to talk to LeSean McCoy a few weeks ago, and he expressed to me that he didn’t think he was going back in Philly next season. He talked about he and Chip Kelly’s relationship had become a little strained and that he just didn’t think that Philly was committed to him.”[/quote_center]

McCoy’s situation echoes the current Adrian Peterson debacle, which we have been covering for weeks at Vikings Territory. Like McCoy, Peterson has an expensive cap number heading into 2015 ($15.4 million). And like McCoy, Peterson has expressed frustration with the Vikings brass, stating two weeks ago that he’s “still uneasy” about returning to the organization.

Today, head coach Mike Zimmer and general manager Rick Spielman are flying to Houston to meet with Peterson, where many believe Zimmer will make his final “pitch” to keep Peterson on the team. No one knows how close the team is to trading Peterson, but this meeting will give fans a better understanding of the situation as a whole. With Matt Cassel’s cap hit effectively gone, the Vikings may be positioning themselves to take on Peterson’s massive contract.

Watch the “Peterson Hug” before today’s Houston meeting with Spielman and Zimmer

But, how does the McCoy trade apply to Peterson? The transaction that was finalized, a player-for-player trade, is rare — since the 2010 offseason, only two teams have made more than 10 such trades. This brings me to the question of Peterson’s value — is he worth more than a Kiko Alonso-type player?

McCoy, who finished third in the NFL in rushing yards last season, is just 26 years old and seemingly in the prime of his career. He had 312 rushing attempts in 2014 (compared to 314 in 2013), but saw a drop-off in his rushing yard totals — a decrease of more than 300 yards. It’s difficult to say that McCoy is “declining”, but his struggles last year may have more to do with his fit in Kelly’s scheme than his talent.

Darren Sproles was a surprising success in the same offense last year, scoring 6 rushing touchdowns on less than 60 attempts. Sproles is more of a threat as a receiver than McCoy, and fits the zone-read offense better with his quickness and lateral agility — a replacement to the once-valuable McCoy.

Kelly recognized this, and sprung a trade for former Oregon linebacker Kiko Alonso. The Eagles have been in the hunt for a three-down linebacker, and Alonso fits that role. Before tearing his ACL last summer, Alonso tallied 159 tackles, 2 sacks, and 4 interceptions in his rookie season. The injury lowered Alonso’s value, filling the Eagles’ need at linebacker for a bargain while offloading an expensive, disgruntled, and replaceable asset.

Like McCoy, Peterson is frustrated and ready to take the appropriate steps forward. What does yesterday’s trade mean for Peterson? It means Peterson, no matter how productive, no matter how beloved he is, is just another player on the Vikings’ 53-man roster. Yes, he’s arguably the team’s most talented, but he’s also one of the most expensive. He’s a lucrative piece to the puzzle — a trade would free up millions of dollars in cap space, leading to bigger free agent signings or the more valuable draft picks.

Minnesota, with $23 million in adjusted cap space, can afford to pay Peterson if they so desperately want to retain him. Peterson, on the other hand, has reportedly expressed interest in restructuring his contract to facilitate a trade with one of 5 teams — the Cowboys, Colts, Chargers, Buccaneers, or Cardinals.

It’s difficult to predict what those teams would be willing to trade, but it’s even more difficult to believe it would be a player-for-player transaction like the Alonso-McCoy deal. Peterson is far-and-away the league’s best running back with years left on his body — teams like the Cowboys will absorb his contract and do whatever necessary to obtain him.

McCoy’s stunning trade is indicative of the growing opinion on today’s running backs — they’re losing value. Peterson “put the team on his back” in 2012, leading Minnesota to the playoffs and rushing for more than 2,000 yards in an MVP season.

Fans would argue that Peterson is invaluable to the Vikings, but the offense proved last year they could be successful with Bridgewater under center and a combination of McKinnon and Asiata in the backfield. Peterson’s name is synonymous with the Vikings, but like I mentioned earlier, the NFL is a business where emotions are less important than the bottom line.

The blows to the Vikings’ public image, the unwelcome media attention, and the nonstop cycle of news and rumors may be the final straw in the team’s potential decision to trade Peterson. How much do the Vikings value Adrian Peterson? We’ll find out soon.

Stay tuned for more updates and analysis on the Peterson situation and the rest of the Vikings offseason news.

 

 

 

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