Boom or Bust in 2015: Vikings TE Kyle Rudolph

Image courtesy of Vikings.com

Kyle Rudolph is broken.

He’s missed 16 games in four seasons with the Minnesota Vikings, and before that, 9 in three seasons at Notre Dame. In 2013, it was a broken left foot. In 2014, it was a combination of freak injuries, from torn abdominal muscles to an MCL strain.

In a March phone interview with Brian Murphy of the Pioneer Press, Rudolph expressed his frustration with the nagging injuries:

[quote_center]”I’d like to think no one in the league works harder than I do to stay healthy and take care of my body, but the bottom line is I haven’t been, and the only way to get rid of those questions is to play 16 games.”[/quote_center]

After signing a five-year contract extension worth up to $40 million in the 2014 offseason, Rudolph failed to live up to expensive expectations — his $19.4 million in guaranteed money made him the second-highest paid tight end in the league behind Jimmy Graham. Even after shedding 16 pounds and getting faster in preparation for Norv Turner’s Air Coryell offense, Rudolph spent more time on the sidelines than in the end zone, missing almost half of the Vikings’ games last season.

What, then, makes Kyle Rudolph one of the Vikings’ most important weapons heading into 2015? Take a closer look at the stat sheet, and you’ll find the answer in 2012:

Games Receiving Rushing
Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G YScm RRTD Fmb AV
2011 22 MIN te 82 15 8 39 26 249 9.6 3 41 1.7 16.6 249 3 0 2
2012* 23 MIN TE 82 16 16 93 53 493 9.3 9 29 3.3 30.8 493 9 0 5
2013 24 MIN te 82 8 8 46 30 313 10.4 3 31 3.8 39.1 313 3 0 3
2014 25 MIN te 82 9 8 34 24 231 9.6 2 23 2.7 25.7 231 2 1 2
Career 48 40 212 133 1286 9.7 17 41 2.8 26.8 1286 17 1 12

That year, Rudolph hauled in 9 touchdowns on 53 catches en route to 493 receiving yards. He’d finish the season a Pro Bowler, eventually winning the game’s MVP award. Still, his accomplishments were overshadowed by a perceived lack of production. Rudolph caught fewer passes than 14 other tight ends that year, and finished the year with fewer yards than 24 other tight ends. Not exactly “wow” numbers, eh?

Looking at 2012 in context paints a different portrait, though — when Christian Ponder’s throwing you the football, it becomes difficult to consistently make plays in the passing game. Ponder targeted Rudolph 90 times that season, yet Rudolph only caught 53 passes. Per ESPN Stats and Information, that resulted in a 58.9 percent drop rate, nearly worst among all NFL tight ends. But, ESPN notes that Rudolph only dropped 3 balls, pinning much of the blame on Ponder’s inaccuracy (62.1 percent completion percentage that year).

At 6’6″, 259 pounds, Rudolph should be an easy target for any quarterback, even Christian Ponder. His 34-inch arms and extraordinarily large hands (10 3/4″) give him a wider catch radius than most, masking even the worst accuracy issues. He found most of his success in the red zone, boxing out defenders like a basketball player and outstretching their helpless arms to snatch jump balls out of the air:

That year, Rudolph caught 50 percent of Christian Ponder’s 18 passing touchdowns and proved to be the team’s most reliable target behind only Percy Harvin. If not for Adrian Peterson’s historic 2,097 rushing yards that season, Rudolph may have been an even more proficient contributor.

Heading into 2013, Rudolph was expected to build on his sudden success and claim his place among the league’s best tight ends — I even bought a purple 82 jersey that offseason. Unfortunately, he fractured his left foot in Week 9 against the Dallas Cowboys (on a touchdown catch, no less), ending his season prematurely.

If we look at the stats from his 8-game run, the numbers point to increased production — Rudolph caught 30 balls for 313 yards and 3 touchdowns in an abbreviated season. Seemingly minor accomplishments, but statistics that projected to 60 catches, 626 yards, and 6 touchdowns — an improvement from 2012 in both catches and yards.

Let’s take a look at Rudolph’s fateful touchdown catch against the Cowboys, as highlighted below:

Rudolph starts the play lined up in a condensed spread formation — he’s the slot receiver (bottom of screen) inside Jarius Wright at the snap. He stems upfield, giving the safety in man coverage the impression he’s running a seam route toward the upright.

At about 12 yards, he gives a shake/wiggle to the outside, freezing the safety’s feet and slightly pushing off (think Antonio Gates), creating separation to the inside. Ponder recognizes the void in coverage (surprise, surprise), delivering a ball that only Rudolph can catch. Barry Church is playing too far over the top, and Rudolph catches the football before he can react.

Once Rudolph makes the catch, he is met by Church, who tries to deliver a “kill-shot”, but bounces off of Rudolph’s large frame. Rudolph regains his balance and fights the extra 5 yards to score the touchdown. With his height and speed, Rudolph is a deadly target in the middle of the field. Here, he employs a veteran move to create space between himself and the defender, then has the awareness to finish a seemingly dead play.

It is one of the many examples between 2012 and 2013 that highlight’s Rudolph’s advanced skill set. He’s not the league’s fastest tight end, but possesses an elite catch radius and a sneaky ability to rack up YAC. Below, a look at Rudolph’s accomplishments over his first four seasons with the Vikings:

Before the 2014 season, the arrival of Norv Turner as the team’s offensive coordinator signaled a potential breakout year for Rudolph. The organization believed this as well, giving him a five-year contract with $19.4 million guaranteed. Norv Turner had previously turned tight ends like Antonio Gates and Jordan Cameron into offensive centerpieces, utilizing a mix of downhill running and play action in his Air Coryell system to open up opportunities in the middle of the field.

As Tom Pelissero reported last July, Rudolph spent much of his offseason studying tape from Cameron’s 2013 season. That year, Cameron emerged from obscurity to become one of the league’s most surprising success stories — 80 catches for 917 yards and 7 touchdowns in one season under Norv Turner. Cameron is a little more shifty and fast-twitch than Rudolph, but Turner has a proven track record of production with tight ends, no matter their age (Gates) or style of play.

Rudolph prepared as if he expected a similar explosion under Turner, shedding 16 pounds and absorbing a new, complicated route tree. As fans have come to expect, Rudolph was sidelined after tearing abdominal muscles in Week 3 against the New Orleans Saints. The injury required surgery, forcing Rudolph to miss the next 6 games. In his place, Chase Ford and Rhett Ellison saw expanded roles, hauling in a combined 42 catches and 2 touchdowns over the course of the season.

When Rudolph returned in Week 10, he appeared slow and uncomfortable, easing gingerly back into the rhythm of the offense. Once his body reacclimatized, he showed flashes of the same player fans had seen in 2012 — from Week 12 to Week 15, Rudolph caught 14 passes for 135 yards and one touchdown. In the Week 15 matchup with the Lions, he hauled in 7 catches for 69 yards, revealing his return to full health and shedding light on a positive trend moving forward.

As the Vikings prepare for the 2015, expectations are high; Teddy Bridgewater is set to blossom into the franchise’s next great quarterback, Adrian Peterson is expected to return and run wild, and Kyle Rudolph is hoping to finish a full 16-game season (or beyond):

[quote_box_center]”There’s a lot to do before September to go out and have the year I expect to have. But when you sit at home in January, watching teams win playoff games and the Super Bowl, and see guys making big plays in big games, you can’t wait for the process to begin.”[/quote_box_center]

If the injury bug doesn’t bite, Kyle Rudolph has a chance to become one of the league’s best tight ends and realize his stolen 2012 potential. He’ll need to work hard this offseason to prepare his body for the demands of playing inline and in the slot — a requirement for tight ends in Turner’s offenses — but there is time before voluntary workouts begin April 20.

Rudolph may be broken, but there is a fix. Is 2015 the year he finds it?

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