2014 NFL Draft: Four Ways to Do a Consensus Mock Draft (One to Three Rounds)
A few days ago, I put together a consensus big board (to be updated on Tuesday) and contrasted the difference between the types of “Top 100” boards people will put together before the draft. An interesting corollary to that are the mock drafts released by endless publications both online and in magazines.
This time, I put together a consensus mock draft. Or rather, four of them.
It was a little bit of a different process, and instead of something simple like averaging player ranks (or in this case, draft position) there were a few ways to construct a mock draft that reflected the consensus of the industry (there are also a number of ways to construct a big board aside from averages, but that’s neither here nor there).
The first mock draft is a cascading mock that takes the aggregate of all the mocks out there to give the team the player most mocked to them, with the only limitation being that any players already chosen are of course not eligible.
This does create interesting issues; Sammy Watkins was the most mocked player to both the Oakland Raiders and the Cleveland Browns in earlier versions (with fewer mocks in the database) for the draft, despite Watkins not being drafted by either team in most mock drafts. Sometimes, the consensus player for that team isn’t available, and there’s no clear-cut favorite after that (each player only once getting mocked to the team in question). In those cases, I simply deferred to the consensus big board to break the tie.
Based on 45 mock drafts, here’s a two-round mock draft based on who got mocked most to whom
“Cascade” Consensus Mock | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Pick | Team | Player | Position | School |
1.1 | HOU | Jadeveon Clowney | ER | South Carolina |
1.2 | STL | Greg Robinson | OT | Auburn |
1.3 | JAX | Khalil Mack | OB | Buffalo |
1.4 | CLE | Johnny Manziel | QB | Texas A&M |
1.5 | OAK | Sammy Watkins | SE | Clemson |
1.6 | ATL | Jake Matthews | OT | Texas A&M |
1.7 | TB | Mike Evans | SE | Texas A&M |
1.8 | MIN | Blake Bortles | QB | UCF |
1.9 | BUF | Taylor Lewan | OT | Michigan |
1.10 | DET | Justin Gilbert | CB | Oklahoma State |
1.11 | TEN | Anthony Barr | ER | UCLA |
1.12 | NYG | Aaron Donald | 3T | Pittsburgh |
1.13 | STL | Ha Ha Clinton-Dix | FS | Alabama |
1.14 | CHI | Calvin Pryor | SS | Louisville |
1.15 | PIT | Darqueze Dennard | CB | Michigan State |
1.16 | DAL | Timmy Jernigan | NT | Florida State |
1.17 | BAL | Zack Martin | IL | Notre Dame |
1.18 | NYJ | Odell Beckham | SE | LSU |
1.19 | MIA | Eric Ebron | TE | North Carolina |
1.20 | ARI | Teddy Bridgewater | QB | Louisville |
1.21 | GB | C.J. Mosley | MB | Alabama |
1.22 | PHI | Brandin Cooks | SL | Oregon State |
1.23 | KC | Marqise Lee | SE | Southern California |
1.24 | CIN | Kyle Fuller | CB | Virginia Tech |
1.25 | SD | Louis Nix | NT | Notre Dame |
1.26 | CLE | Derek Carr | QB | Fresno State |
1.27 | NO | Dee Ford | ER | Auburn |
1.28 | CAR | Morgan Moses | OT | Virginia |
1.29 | NE | Ra’Shede Hageman | 5T | Minnesota |
1.30 | SF | Bradley Roby | CB | Ohio State |
1.31 | DEN | Xavier Su’a-Filo | IL | UCLA |
1.32 | SEA | Stephon Tuitt | 5T | Notre Dame |
2.1 | HOU | Tom Savage | QB | Pittsburgh |
2.2 | WSH | Cyrus Kouandjio | OT | Alabama |
2.3 | CLE | Carlos Hyde | RB | Ohio State |
2.4 | OAK | Kyle Van Noy | OB | Brigham Young |
2.5 | ATL | Kony Ealy | ER | Missouri |
2.6 | TB | Gabe Jackson | IL | Mississippi State |
2.7 | JAX | Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | Eastern Illinois |
2.8 | MIN | Jason Verrett | CB | TCU |
2.9 | BUF | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | TE | Washington |
2.10 | TEN | Tre Mason | RB | Auburn |
2.11 | NYG | Jace Amaro | TE | Texas Tech |
2.12 | STL | Kelvin Benjamin | SE | Florida State |
2.13 | DET | Lamarcus Joyner | FS | Florida State |
2.14 | PIT | Dominique Easley | 3T | Florida |
2.15 | DAL | Scott Crichton | ER | Oregon State |
2.16 | BAL | Jimmie Ward | FS | Northern Illinois |
2.17 | NYJ | Jeremiah Attaochu | ER | Georgia Tech |
2.18 | MIA | David Yankey | IL | Stanford |
2.19 | CHI | Deone Bucannon | SS | Washington State |
2.20 | ARI | Zach Mettenberger | QB | LSU |
2.21 | GB | Troy Niklas | TE | Notre Dame |
2.22 | PHI | Demarcus Lawrence | ER | Boise State |
2.23 | CIN | Kareem Martin | ER | North Carolina |
2.24 | SF | Jordan Matthews | SE | Vanderbilt |
2.25 | SD | Marcus Martin | IL | Southern California |
2.26 | NO | Davante Adams | FL | Fresno State |
2.27 | IND | Trent Murphy | ER | Stanford |
2.28 | CAR | Jarvis Landry | FL | LSU |
2.29 | SF | DaQuan Jones | NT | Penn State |
2.30 | NE | Jeremy Hill | RB | LSU |
2.31 | DEN | Chris Borland | MB | Wisconsin |
2.32 | SEA | Donte Moncrief | SE | Ole Miss |
This kind of mock draft doesn’t miss much—there are very rarely players that fall out of the top 64 entirely and this generally fits need, scheme and talent. It’s probably the simplest type of mock to do, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a way to improve on it.
Generally speaking, it’s a bit of an odd mock simply because there weren’t many mocks that went all the way through to the second round, and a few picked Tom Savage for the Houston Texans, which seems incredulous at best. Donte Moncrief, Marcus Martin and Kareem Martin seemed to go kind of high, too.
The fact that it doesn’t have Joel Bitonio or Ja’Wuan James is likely a problem given the need for offensive linemen and their general talent level, and Ryan Shazier seems to be an odd missing piece from the top 64 picks. Other players that probably deserve to get picked in the first two rounds didn’t, like Allen Robinson, Weston Richburg and Pierre Desir.
Another approach is to prioritize accuracy. We know there are experts out there who do a very good job (relatively speaking) of placing players in the first round and matching players to teams. The Huddle Report continuously scores the top mock drafters in the country, so we generally have a good idea of who to best pay attention to.
The second kind of mock draft functionally creates a voting system between those accurate mockers, where they get points for each pick proportional to their score in THR’s mock draft contests. The player with the most points at each pick gets picked and so on down the line (again, players who were picked earlier in the draft were ineligible). This process took a lot longer than I thought it would, and while some teams only had three to four players receive votes for their pick (like Houston), others had a wide range (Baltimore had a different pick from nearly each mocker, 13 in all).
Bob McGinn and Jason Boris haven’t released a mock draft yet, so I haven’t included them, but most of the other experts ranked in the top twenty had input in the following one round mock, “voted” on by experts:
“Expert” Voting Mock | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Pick | Team | Player | Position | School |
1 | HOU | Jadeveon Clowney | ER | South Carolina |
2 | STL | Greg Robinson | OT | Auburn |
3 | JAX | Sammy Watkins | SE | Clemson |
4 | CLE | Johnny Manziel | QB | Texas A&M |
5 | OAK | Khalil Mack | OB | Buffalo |
6 | ATL | Jake Matthews | OT | Texas A&M |
7 | TB | Mike Evans | SE | Texas A&M |
8 | MIN | Blake Bortles | QB | UCF |
9 | BUF | Eric Ebron | TE | North Carolina |
10 | DET | Justin Gilbert | CB | Oklahoma State |
11 | TEN | Anthony Barr | ER | UCLA |
12 | NYG | Aaron Donald | 3T | Pittsburgh |
13 | STL | Ha Ha Clinton-Dix | FS | Alabama |
14 | CHI | Ra’Shede Hageman | 5T | Minnesota |
15 | PIT | Darqueze Dennard | CB | Michigan State |
16 | DAL | Zack Martin | IL | Notre Dame |
17 | BAL | Kony Ealy | ER | Missouri |
18 | NYJ | Brandin Cooks | SL | Oregon State |
19 | MIA | C.J. Mosley | MB | Alabama |
20 | ARI | Teddy Bridgewater | QB | Louisville |
21 | GB | Calvin Pryor | SS | Louisville |
22 | PHI | Dee Ford | ER | Auburn |
23 | KC | Marqise Lee | SE | Southern California |
24 | CIN | Bradley Roby | CB | Ohio State |
25 | SD | Jason Verrett | CB | TCU |
26 | CLE | Derek Carr | QB | Fresno State |
27 | NO | Cody Latimer | SE | Indiana |
28 | CAR | Morgan Moses | OT | Virginia |
29 | NE | Louis Nix | NT | Notre Dame |
30 | SF | Jordan Matthews | SE | Vanderbilt |
31 | DEN | Ryan Shazier | OB | Ohio State |
32 | SEA | Stephon Tuitt | 5T | Notre Dame |
In this situation, because experts are basically only providing input to teams based on their own personal mock instead of the board at large in the consensus mock, you are likely to see players inexplicably excluded from the first round, even if none of the individual mockers sees that sort of thing happen (or expects it to).
In this case, there’s a glaring lack of players like Taylor Lewan and Odell Beckham, while it seems like at least one of Kyle Fuller, Timmy Jernigan, Xavier Su’a-Filo and Cyrus Kouandjio would sniff the first round if not two. There are no particularly eye-brow raising conclusions, and it seems like Cody Latimer’s recent rise has been incorporated by many of the drafters contributing. There is a good chance that one of Jordan Matthews, Stephon Tuitt or Dee Ford do not make it into the first round, though it is difficult to say who, exactly (my money would be on Ford).
The last way to organize a “consensus” mock draft is to ignore the players specifically and focus on the positions—many of the successful mock drafters do a good job of figuring out who needs what and then figure out the best players at those positions. We can circumvent the process by simply taking the positions they mock and draft from there. There are three or for different approaches to take.
The first is simply to trust those mock drafters in ranking the players and use their mocked player ranks (not big boards) as in-situ player rankings.
The second is to use the big board constructed from the consensus work done earlier and give teams the best player at the positions they need.
If we’re more interested in forecasting, we could grab the “forecaster” specific board and use those functional positional rankings to slot players. If we’re more interested in telling teams what they should do, then we can use our “evaluator” board, assuming that the difference between the two is actually meaningful.
For this mock draft, I took the two positions most mocked by drafters and functionally made them equal, giving them the player who ranked highest on whichever draft board I was using of the two best-ranked players at each “need” position. This should create some serious scheme fit issues, but it doesn’t really look all that bad.
For example, Houston’s two most common picks were an edge rusher and a quarterback. Because Jadeveon Clowney is at the top of the talent board, the Texans picked him over whichever QB was ranked at the top (which was different depending on which board you used).
They are all three-round mocks. The first one uses the mock drafters’ own functional consensus board along with their mocked positions:
“Positional” Mock—Drafter Board | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Pick | Team | Mock | Pos | School |
1.1 | HOU | Jadeveon Clowney | ER | South Carolina |
1.2 | STL | Greg Robinson | OT | Auburn |
1.3 | JAX | Khalil Mack | OB | Buffalo |
1.4 | CLE | Sammy Watkins | SE | Clemson |
1.5 | OAK | Mike Evans | SE | Texas A&M |
1.6 | ATL | Jake Matthews | OT | Texas A&M |
1.7 | TB | Johnny Manziel | QB | Texas A&M |
1.8 | MIN | Blake Bortles | QB | UCF |
1.9 | BUF | Taylor Lewan | OT | Michigan |
1.10 | DET | Justin Gilbert | CB | Oklahoma State |
1.11 | TEN | Anthony Barr | ER | UCLA |
1.12 | NYG | Aaron Donald | 3T | Pittsburgh |
1.13 | STL | Ha Ha Clinton-Dix | FS | Alabama |
1.14 | CHI | Darqueze Dennard | CB | Michigan State |
1.15 | PIT | Odell Beckham | SE | LSU |
1.16 | DAL | Calvin Pryor | SS | Louisville |
1.17 | BAL | Zack Martin | IL | Notre Dame |
1.18 | NYJ | Kyle Fuller | CB | Virginia Tech |
1.19 | MIA | Morgan Moses | OT | Virginia |
1.20 | ARI | Teddy Bridgewater | QB | Louisville |
1.21 | GB | C.J. Mosley | MB | Alabama |
1.22 | PHI | Marqise Lee | SE | Southern California |
1.23 | KC | Brandin Cooks | SL | Oregon State |
1.24 | CIN | Bradley Roby | CB | Ohio State |
1.25 | SD | Jason Verrett | CB | TCU |
1.26 | CLE | Derek Carr | QB | Fresno State |
1.27 | NO | Dee Ford | ER | Auburn |
1.28 | CAR | Cyrus Kouandjio | OT | Alabama |
1.29 | NE | Ra’Shede Hageman | 5T | Minnesota |
1.30 | SF | Kelvin Benjamin | SE | Florida State |
1.31 | DEN | Xavier Su’a-Filo | IL | UCLA |
1.32 | SEA | Joel Bitonio | OT | Nevada |
2.1 | HOU | Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | Eastern Illinois |
2.2 | WSH | Stephon Tuitt | 5T | Notre Dame |
2.3 | CLE | Ryan Shazier | OB | Ohio State |
2.4 | OAK | Jimmie Ward | FS | Northern Illinois |
2.5 | ATL | Kony Ealy | ER | Missouri |
2.6 | TB | Cody Latimer | SE | Indiana |
2.7 | JAX | Tom Savage | QB | Pittsburgh |
2.8 | MIN | James Gayle | ER | Virginia Tech |
2.9 | BUF | Eric Ebron | TE | North Carolina |
2.10 | TEN | Demarcus Lawrence | ER | Boise State |
2.11 | NYG | Jace Amaro | TE | Texas Tech |
2.12 | STL | Jordan Matthews | SE | Vanderbilt |
2.13 | DET | Lamarcus Joyner | FS | Florida State |
2.14 | PIT | Timmy Jernigan | NT | Florida State |
2.15 | DAL | Louis Nix | NT | Notre Dame |
2.16 | BAL | Antonio Richardson | OT | Tennessee |
2.17 | NYJ | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | TE | Washington |
2.18 | MIA | Tyler Larsen | IL | Utah State |
2.19 | CHI | Carlos Hyde | RB | Ohio State |
2.20 | ARI | Zach Mettenberger | QB | LSU |
2.21 | GB | Troy Niklas | TE | Notre Dame |
2.22 | PHI | Jeremiah Attaochu | ER | Georgia Tech |
2.23 | CIN | Scott Crichton | ER | Oregon State |
2.24 | SF | Kareem Martin | ER | North Carolina |
2.25 | SD | Trent Murphy | ER | Stanford |
2.26 | NO | Allen Robinson | FL | Penn State |
2.27 | IND | Deone Bucannon | SS | Washington State |
2.28 | CAR | Davante Adams | FL | Fresno State |
2.29 | SF | Keith McGill | CB | Utah |
2.30 | NE | Tyler Gaffney | RB | Stanford |
2.31 | DEN | Donte Moncrief | SE | Ole Miss |
2.32 | SEA | Shaquille Richardson | CB | Arizona |
3.1 | HOU | Tre Mason | RB | Auburn |
3.2 | WSH | Marcus Smith | ER | Louisville |
3.3 | OAK | Kyle Van Noy | OB | Brigham Young |
3.4 | ATL | Stanley Jean-Baptiste | CB | Nebraska |
3.5 | TB | Dominique Easley | 3T | Florida |
3.6 | JAX | David Yankey | IL | Stanford |
3.7 | CLE | Jeremy Hill | RB | LSU |
3.8 | MIN | Bishop Sankey | RB | Washington |
3.9 | BUF | Ja’Wuan James | OT | Tennessee |
3.10 | NYG | Marcus Martin | IL | Southern California |
3.11 | STL | Pierre Desir | CB | Lindenwood |
3.12 | DET | Phillip Gaines | CB | Rice |
3.13 | SF | Aaron Lynch | ER | South Florida |
3.14 | DAL | Gabe Jackson | IL | Mississippi State |
3.15 | BAL | Ego Ferguson | 3T | LSU |
3.16 | NYJ | Bashaud Breeland | CB | Clemson |
3.17 | MIA | Terrence Brooks | FS | Florida State |
3.18 | CHI | Will Sutton | 3T | Arizona State |
3.19 | CLE | Chris Borland | MB | Wisconsin |
3.20 | ARI | Jalen Saunders | SL | Oklahoma |
3.21 | GB | Tyler Starr | OB | South Dakota |
3.22 | PHI | Dontae Johnson | CB | North Carolina State |
3.23 | KC | Weston Richburg | IL | Colorado State |
3.24 | CIN | A.J. McCarron | QB | Alabama |
3.25 | SD | Josh Huff | SL | Oregon |
3.26 | IND | Marcus Roberson | CB | Florida |
3.27 | NO | Seantrel Henderson | OT | Miami (Fla.) |
3.28 | CAR | Martavis Bryant | SE | Clemson |
3.29 | NE | Jackson Jeffcoat | ER | Texas |
3.30 | SF | Trai Turner | IL | LSU |
3.31 | DEN | Jaylen Watkins | CB | Florida |
3.32 | MIN | Kevin Norwood | FL | Alabama |
3.33 | PIT | Brent Urban | 5T | Virginia |
3.34 | GB | C.J. Fiedorowicz | TE | Iowa |
3.35 | BAL | Paul Richardson | SE | Colorado |
3.36 | SF | Andre Williams | RB | Boston College |
I suppose Bengals fans could get another Andy Dalton in A.J. McCarron, and Tyler Starr should be pretty happy with what this implies, but it does feel off. Shaquille Richardson is an interesting add for the Seahawks, but he does have above average arm length for his position (and height) and plays off of feel and reading the QB in zone, so it’s not entirely off… just a few rounds early.
Notable are the people entirely missing from the three rounds: Shayne Skov, Jarvis Landry, DaQuan Jones and Cyril Richardson. Also, Eric Ebron’s drop is notable.
Here’s a positional mock that uses the positions mockers like to draft, but the consensus board established a few days ago (it is constantly updating, incidentally—full update on Wednesday). Here’s what those three rounds look like:
“Positional” Mock—Consensus Board | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Pick | Team | Mock | Pos | School |
1.1 | HOU | Jadeveon Clowney | ER | South Carolina |
1.2 | STL | Greg Robinson | OT | Auburn |
1.3 | JAX | Khalil Mack | OB | Buffalo |
1.4 | CLE | Sammy Watkins | SE | Clemson |
1.5 | OAK | Mike Evans | SE | Texas A&M |
1.6 | ATL | Jake Matthews | OT | Texas A&M |
1.7 | TB | Teddy Bridgewater | QB | Louisville |
1.8 | MIN | C.J. Mosley | MB | Alabama |
1.9 | BUF | Eric Ebron | TE | North Carolina |
1.10 | DET | Darqueze Dennard | CB | Michigan State |
1.11 | TEN | Anthony Barr | ER | UCLA |
1.12 | NYG | Aaron Donald | 3T | Pittsburgh |
1.13 | STL | Ha Ha Clinton-Dix | FS | Alabama |
1.14 | CHI | Justin Gilbert | CB | Oklahoma State |
1.15 | PIT | Odell Beckham | SE | LSU |
1.16 | DAL | Kony Ealy | ER | Missouri |
1.17 | BAL | Taylor Lewan | OT | Michigan |
1.18 | NYJ | Marqise Lee | SE | Southern California |
1.19 | MIA | Zack Martin | IL | Notre Dame |
1.20 | ARI | Blake Bortles | QB | UCF |
1.21 | GB | Ryan Shazier | OB | Ohio State |
1.22 | PHI | Brandin Cooks | SL | Oregon State |
1.23 | KC | Kelvin Benjamin | SE | Florida State |
1.24 | CIN | Jason Verrett | CB | TCU |
1.25 | SD | Louis Nix | NT | Notre Dame |
1.26 | CLE | Johnny Manziel | QB | Texas A&M |
1.27 | NO | Kyle Fuller | CB | Virginia Tech |
1.28 | CAR | Cyrus Kouandjio | OT | Alabama |
1.29 | NE | Ra’Shede Hageman | 5T | Minnesota |
1.30 | SF | Bradley Roby | CB | Ohio State |
1.31 | DEN | Xavier Su’a-Filo | IL | UCLA |
1.32 | SEA | Morgan Moses | OT | Virginia |
2.1 | HOU | Derek Carr | QB | Fresno State |
2.2 | WSH | Stephon Tuitt | 5T | Notre Dame |
2.3 | CLE | Kyle Van Noy | OB | Brigham Young |
2.4 | OAK | Jimmie Ward | FS | Northern Illinois |
2.5 | ATL | Dee Ford | ER | Auburn |
2.6 | TB | Jordan Matthews | SE | Vanderbilt |
2.7 | JAX | Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | Eastern Illinois |
2.8 | MIN | Jeremiah Attaochu | ER | Georgia Tech |
2.9 | BUF | Jace Amaro | TE | Texas Tech |
2.10 | TEN | Carlos Hyde | RB | Ohio State |
2.11 | NYG | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | TE | Washington |
2.12 | STL | Lamarcus Joyner | FS | Florida State |
2.13 | DET | Joel Bitonio | OT | Nevada |
2.14 | PIT | Timmy Jernigan | NT | Florida State |
2.15 | DAL | Dominique Easley | 3T | Florida |
2.16 | BAL | Antonio Richardson | OT | Tennessee |
2.17 | NYJ | Scott Crichton | ER | Oregon State |
2.18 | MIA | Gabe Jackson | IL | Mississippi State |
2.19 | CHI | Bishop Sankey | RB | Washington |
2.20 | ARI | Trent Murphy | ER | Stanford |
2.21 | GB | Troy Niklas | TE | Notre Dame |
2.22 | PHI | Demarcus Lawrence | ER | Boise State |
2.23 | CIN | David Yankey | IL | Stanford |
2.24 | SF | Donte Moncrief | SE | Ole Miss |
2.25 | SD | DaQuan Jones | NT | Penn State |
2.26 | NO | Allen Robinson | FL | Penn State |
2.27 | IND | Calvin Pryor | SS | Louisville |
2.28 | CAR | Davante Adams | FL | Fresno State |
2.29 | SF | Pierre Desir | CB | Lindenwood |
2.30 | NE | Tre Mason | RB | Auburn |
2.31 | DEN | Chris Borland | MB | Wisconsin |
2.32 | SEA | Stanley Jean-Baptiste | CB | Nebraska |
3.1 | HOU | Jeremy Hill | RB | LSU |
3.2 | WSH | Marcus Smith | ER | Louisville |
3.3 | OAK | Carl Bradford | ER | Arizona State |
3.4 | ATL | Chris Smith | ER | Arkansas |
3.5 | TB | Will Sutton | 3T | Arizona State |
3.6 | JAX | Weston Richburg | IL | Colorado State |
3.7 | CLE | Charles Sims | RB | West Virginia |
3.8 | MIN | Ka’Deem Carey | RB | Arizona |
3.9 | BUF | Ja’Wuan James | OT | Tennessee |
3.10 | NYG | Cyril Richardson | IL | Baylor |
3.11 | STL | Marcus Roberson | CB | Florida |
3.12 | DET | Keith McGill | CB | Utah |
3.13 | SF | Ego Ferguson | 3T | LSU |
3.14 | DAL | Travis Swanson | IL | Arkansas |
3.15 | BAL | Lache Seastrunk | RB | Baylor |
3.16 | NYJ | Jaylen Watkins | CB | Florida |
3.17 | MIA | Terrence Brooks | FS | Florida State |
3.18 | CHI | Kelcy Quarles | 3T | South Carolina |
3.19 | CLE | Telvin Smith | MB | Florida State |
3.20 | ARI | Bruce Ellington | SL | South Carolina |
3.21 | GB | Christian Jones | OB | Florida State |
3.22 | PHI | Kareem Martin | ER | North Carolina |
3.23 | KC | Marcus Martin | IL | Southern California |
3.24 | CIN | Zach Mettenberger | QB | LSU |
3.25 | SD | Jack Mewhort | OT | Ohio State |
3.26 | IND | Bashaud Breeland | CB | Clemson |
3.27 | NO | Billy Turner | OT | North Dakota State |
3.28 | CAR | Paul Richardson | SE | Colorado |
3.29 | NE | Jackson Jeffcoat | ER | Texas |
3.30 | SF | Brandon Thomas | IL | Clemson |
3.31 | DEN | E.J. Gaines | CB | Missouri |
3.32 | MIN | Jarvis Landry | FL | LSU |
3.33 | PIT | Trevor Reilly | ER | Utah |
3.34 | GB | C.J. Fiedorowicz | TE | Iowa |
3.35 | BAL | Martavis Bryant | SE | Clemson |
3.36 | SF | Andre Williams | RB | Boston College |
The top of the draft looks identical this way, with the changes coming from Tampa Bay’s pick on. The bottom of the draft is a lot less wonky and despite what looks to be a reach for Trevor Reilly and Andre Williams, teams did a better job avoiding issues. The Vikings took advantage of a larger-than-expected fall for Jarvis Landry. The consensus board does not seem to have incorporated Brandon Thomas’ injury, so he should probably not be in these first three rounds.
Players undrafted in the top three who probably deserved to go higher: Deone Bucannon, Shayne Skov and Cody Latimer.
When you look at the “forecaster” board, things begin to change a little.
“Positional” Mock—Forecaster Board | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Pick | Team | Mock | Pos | School |
1.1 | HOU | Jadeveon Clowney | ER | South Carolina |
1.2 | STL | Greg Robinson | OT | Auburn |
1.3 | JAX | Sammy Watkins | SE | Clemson |
1.4 | CLE | Mike Evans | SE | Texas A&M |
1.5 | OAK | Khalil Mack | OB | Buffalo |
1.6 | ATL | Jake Matthews | OT | Texas A&M |
1.7 | TB | Odell Beckham | SE | LSU |
1.8 | MIN | C.J. Mosley | MB | Alabama |
1.9 | BUF | Taylor Lewan | OT | Michigan |
1.10 | DET | Justin Gilbert | CB | Oklahoma State |
1.11 | TEN | Anthony Barr | ER | UCLA |
1.12 | NYG | Aaron Donald | 3T | Pittsburgh |
1.13 | STL | Ha Ha Clinton-Dix | FS | Alabama |
1.14 | CHI | Darqueze Dennard | CB | Michigan State |
1.15 | PIT | Marqise Lee | SE | Southern California |
1.16 | DAL | Calvin Pryor | SS | Louisville |
1.17 | BAL | Zack Martin | IL | Notre Dame |
1.18 | NYJ | Kyle Fuller | CB | Virginia Tech |
1.19 | MIA | Cyrus Kouandjio | OT | Alabama |
1.20 | ARI | Blake Bortles | QB | UCF |
1.21 | GB | Ryan Shazier | OB | Ohio State |
1.22 | PHI | Brandin Cooks | SL | Oregon State |
1.23 | KC | Kelvin Benjamin | SE | Florida State |
1.24 | CIN | Bradley Roby | CB | Ohio State |
1.25 | SD | Timmy Jernigan | NT | Florida State |
1.26 | CLE | Teddy Bridgewater | QB | Louisville |
1.27 | NO | Kony Ealy | ER | Missouri |
1.28 | CAR | Morgan Moses | OT | Virginia |
1.29 | NE | Ra’Shede Hageman | 5T | Minnesota |
1.30 | SF | Jason Verrett | CB | TCU |
1.31 | DEN | Xavier Su’a-Filo | IL | UCLA |
1.32 | SEA | Joel Bitonio | OT | Nevada |
2.1 | HOU | Johnny Manziel | QB | Texas A&M |
2.2 | WSH | Stephon Tuitt | 5T | Notre Dame |
2.3 | CLE | Davante Adams | FL | Fresno State |
2.4 | OAK | Derek Carr | QB | Fresno State |
2.5 | ATL | Dee Ford | ER | Auburn |
2.6 | TB | Jordan Matthews | SE | Vanderbilt |
2.7 | JAX | Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | Eastern Illinois |
2.8 | MIN | Jeremiah Attaochu | ER | Georgia Tech |
2.9 | BUF | Eric Ebron | TE | North Carolina |
2.10 | TEN | Carlos Hyde | RB | Ohio State |
2.11 | NYG | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | TE | Washington |
2.12 | STL | Jimmie Ward | FS | Northern Illinois |
2.13 | DET | Ja’Wuan James | OT | Tennessee |
2.14 | PIT | Louis Nix | NT | Notre Dame |
2.15 | DAL | Dominique Easley | 3T | Florida |
2.16 | BAL | Antonio Richardson | OT | Tennessee |
2.17 | NYJ | Jace Amaro | TE | Texas Tech |
2.18 | MIA | Gabe Jackson | IL | Mississippi State |
2.19 | CHI | Tre Mason | RB | Auburn |
2.20 | ARI | Scott Crichton | ER | Oregon State |
2.21 | GB | Troy Niklas | TE | Notre Dame |
2.22 | PHI | Demarcus Lawrence | ER | Boise State |
2.23 | CIN | Trent Murphy | ER | Stanford |
2.24 | SF | Donte Moncrief | SE | Ole Miss |
2.25 | SD | DaQuan Jones | NT | Penn State |
2.26 | NO | Allen Robinson | FL | Penn State |
2.27 | IND | Deone Bucannon | SS | Washington State |
2.28 | CAR | Jarvis Landry | FL | LSU |
2.29 | SF | Keith McGill | CB | Utah |
2.30 | NE | Bishop Sankey | RB | Washington |
2.31 | DEN | Paul Richardson | SE | Colorado |
2.32 | SEA | Stanley Jean-Baptiste | CB | Nebraska |
3.1 | HOU | Jeremy Hill | RB | LSU |
3.2 | WSH | Lamarcus Joyner | FS | Florida State |
3.3 | OAK | Christian Jones | OB | Florida State |
3.4 | ATL | Marcus Smith | ER | Louisville |
3.5 | TB | Ego Ferguson | 3T | LSU |
3.6 | JAX | Weston Richburg | IL | Colorado State |
3.7 | CLE | Ka’Deem Carey | RB | Arizona |
3.8 | MIN | Charles Sims | RB | West Virginia |
3.9 | BUF | Jack Mewhort | OT | Ohio State |
3.10 | NYG | David Yankey | IL | Stanford |
3.11 | STL | Marcus Roberson | CB | Florida |
3.12 | DET | Bashaud Breeland | CB | Clemson |
3.13 | SF | Anthony Johnson | 3T | LSU |
3.14 | DAL | Cyril Richardson | IL | Baylor |
3.15 | BAL | Will Sutton | 3T | Arizona State |
3.16 | NYJ | Phillip Gaines | CB | Rice |
3.17 | MIA | Ed Reynolds | FS | Stanford |
3.18 | CHI | Kelcy Quarles | 3T | South Carolina |
3.19 | CLE | Chris Borland | MB | Wisconsin |
3.20 | ARI | Josh Huff | SL | Oregon |
3.21 | GB | C.J. Fiedorowicz | OB | Iowa |
3.22 | PHI | Carl Bradford | ER | Arizona State |
3.23 | KC | Marcus Martin | IL | Southern California |
3.24 | CIN | Zach Mettenberger | QB | LSU |
3.25 | SD | Cameron Fleming | OT | Stanford |
3.26 | IND | Jaylen Watkins | CB | Florida |
3.27 | NO | Brandon Thomas | IL | Clemson |
3.28 | CAR | Cody Latimer | SE | Indiana |
3.29 | NE | Jackson Jeffcoat | ER | Texas |
3.30 | SF | Travis Swanson | IL | Arkansas |
3.31 | DEN | Chris Smith | ER | Arkansas |
3.32 | MIN | Jared Abbrederis | FL | Wisconsin |
3.33 | PIT | Taylor Hart | 5T | Oregon |
3.34 | GB | Colt Lyerla | TE | Oregon |
3.35 | BAL | Brandon Coleman | SE | Rutgers |
3.36 | SF | Terrance West | RB | Towson |
I’m not so sure Colt Lyerla makes any sense there, but I like seeing Taylor Hart where he is. Undrafted: Martavis Bryant, A.J. McCarron, Pierre Desir, Lache Seastrunk.
Sammy Watkins at three instead of four changed quite a few things, and the fact that Mike Evans was ranked really highly by the forecasters only made the top five a lot more unpredictable.
Finally, there’s the same positional mock, but using the “evaluator board” to fill in the positions:
“Positional” Mock—Evaluator Board | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Pick | Team | Mock | Pos | School |
1.1 | HOU | Jadeveon Clowney | ER | South Carolina |
1.2 | STL | Jake Matthews | OT | Texas A&M |
1.3 | JAX | Khalil Mack | OB | Buffalo |
1.4 | CLE | Teddy Bridgewater | QB | Louisville |
1.5 | OAK | Sammy Watkins | SE | Clemson |
1.6 | ATL | Greg Robinson | OT | Auburn |
1.7 | TB | Derek Carr | QB | Fresno State |
1.8 | MIN | C.J. Mosley | MB | Alabama |
1.9 | BUF | Eric Ebron | TE | North Carolina |
1.10 | DET | Darqueze Dennard | CB | Michigan State |
1.11 | TEN | Anthony Barr | ER | UCLA |
1.12 | NYG | Aaron Donald | 3T | Pittsburgh |
1.13 | STL | Jason Verrett | CB | TCU |
1.14 | CHI | Justin Gilbert | CB | Oklahoma State |
1.15 | PIT | Mike Evans | SE | Texas A&M |
1.16 | DAL | Kony Ealy | ER | Missouri |
1.17 | BAL | Taylor Lewan | OT | Michigan |
1.18 | NYJ | Odell Beckham | SE | LSU |
1.19 | MIA | Xavier Su’a-Filo | IL | UCLA |
1.20 | ARI | Johnny Manziel | QB | Texas A&M |
1.21 | GB | Ryan Shazier | OB | Ohio State |
1.22 | PHI | Marqise Lee | SE | Southern California |
1.23 | KC | Brandin Cooks | SL | Oregon State |
1.24 | CIN | Bradley Roby | CB | Ohio State |
1.25 | SD | Louis Nix | NT | Notre Dame |
1.26 | CLE | Blake Bortles | QB | UCF |
1.27 | NO | Kyle Fuller | CB | Virginia Tech |
1.28 | CAR | Jordan Matthews | SE | Vanderbilt |
1.29 | NE | Ra’Shede Hageman | 5T | Minnesota |
1.30 | SF | Kelvin Benjamin | SE | Florida State |
1.31 | DEN | Gabe Jackson | IL | Mississippi State |
1.32 | SEA | Cyrus Kouandjio | OT | Alabama |
2.1 | HOU | Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | Eastern Illinois |
2.2 | WSH | Stephon Tuitt | 5T | Notre Dame |
2.3 | CLE | Kyle Van Noy | OB | Brigham Young |
2.4 | OAK | Ha Ha Clinton-Dix | FS | Alabama |
2.5 | ATL | Dee Ford | ER | Auburn |
2.6 | TB | Morgan Moses | OT | Virginia |
2.7 | JAX | Zach Mettenberger | QB | LSU |
2.8 | MIN | Jeremiah Attaochu | ER | Georgia Tech |
2.9 | BUF | Jace Amaro | TE | Texas Tech |
2.10 | TEN | Carlos Hyde | RB | Ohio State |
2.11 | NYG | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | TE | Washington |
2.12 | STL | Jimmie Ward | FS | Northern Illinois |
2.13 | DET | Lamarcus Joyner | FS | Florida State |
2.14 | PIT | Timmy Jernigan | NT | Florida State |
2.15 | DAL | Dominique Easley | 3T | Florida |
2.16 | BAL | Antonio Richardson | OT | Tennessee |
2.17 | NYJ | Scott Crichton | ER | Oregon State |
2.18 | MIA | David Yankey | IL | Stanford |
2.19 | CHI | Pierre Desir | CB | Lindenwood |
2.20 | ARI | Marcus Smith | ER | Louisville |
2.21 | GB | Troy Niklas | TE | Notre Dame |
2.22 | PHI | Trent Murphy | ER | Stanford |
2.23 | CIN | Cyril Richardson | IL | Baylor |
2.24 | SF | Demarcus Lawrence | ER | Boise State |
2.25 | SD | DaQuan Jones | NT | Penn State |
2.26 | NO | Allen Robinson | FL | Penn State |
2.27 | IND | Calvin Pryor | SS | Louisville |
2.28 | CAR | Davante Adams | FL | Fresno State |
2.29 | SF | Stanley Jean-Baptiste | CB | Nebraska |
2.30 | NE | Bishop Sankey | RB | Washington |
2.31 | DEN | Chris Borland | MB | Wisconsin |
2.32 | SEA | Donte Moncrief | CB | Ole Miss |
3.1 | HOU | Tre Mason | RB | Auburn |
3.2 | WSH | Carl Bradford | ER | Arizona State |
3.3 | OAK | Christian Jones | OB | Florida State |
3.4 | ATL | Chris Smith | ER | Arkansas |
3.5 | TB | Will Sutton | 3T | Arizona State |
3.6 | JAX | Weston Richburg | IL | Colorado State |
3.7 | CLE | Lache Seastrunk | RB | Baylor |
3.8 | MIN | Ka’Deem Carey | RB | Arizona |
3.9 | BUF | Billy Turner | OT | North Dakota State |
3.10 | NYG | Travis Swanson | IL | Arkansas |
3.11 | STL | Marcus Roberson | CB | Florida |
3.12 | DET | E.J. Gaines | CB | Missouri |
3.13 | SF | Ego Ferguson | 3T | LSU |
3.14 | DAL | Brandon Thomas | IL | Clemson |
3.15 | BAL | Jeremy Hill | RB | LSU |
3.16 | NYJ | Jaylen Watkins | CB | Florida |
3.17 | MIA | Terrence Brooks | FS | Florida State |
3.18 | CHI | Caraun Reid | 3T | Princeton |
3.19 | CLE | Telvin Smith | MB | Florida State |
3.20 | ARI | Bruce Ellington | SL | South Carolina |
3.21 | GB | C.J. Fiedorowicz | OB | Iowa |
3.22 | PHI | Jackson Jeffcoat | ER | Texas |
3.23 | KC | Keith McGill | CB | Utah |
3.24 | CIN | Jack Mewhort | OT | Ohio State |
3.25 | SD | Joel Bitonio | OT | Nevada |
3.26 | IND | Terrance Mitchell | CB | Oregon |
3.27 | NO | Ja’Wuan James | OT | Tennessee |
3.28 | CAR | Aaron Lynch | ER | South Florida |
3.29 | NE | Kareem Martin | ER | North Carolina |
3.30 | SF | Trevor Reilly | ER | Utah |
3.31 | DEN | Vic Hampton | CB | South Carolina |
3.32 | MIN | Jarvis Landry | FL | LSU |
3.33 | PIT | Jordan Tripp | ER | Montana |
3.34 | GB | Richard Rodgers | TE | California |
3.35 | BAL | Paul Richardson | SE | Colorado |
3.36 | SF | Andre Williams | RB | Boston College |
This one is a lot higher on Eric Ebron, and he finally goes early. For Minnesota, the final mocks do not end up looking all that different from each other and might provide an interesting preview of what’s to come on draft day:
Cascade Mock | |||
---|---|---|---|
Picks | Player | Pos | School |
1.8 | Blake Bortles | QB | UCF |
2.8 | Jason Verrett | CB | TCU |
Voting Mock | |||
Picks | Player | Pos | School |
1.8 | Blake Bortles | QB | UCF |
Mocker’s Board | |||
Picks | Player | Pos | School |
1.8 | Blake Bortles | QB | UCF |
2.8 | James Gayle | ER | Virginia Tech |
3.8 | Bishop Sankey | RB | Washington |
3.32 | Kevin Norwood | FL | Alabama |
Consensus Board | |||
Picks | Player | Pos | School |
1.8 | C.J. Mosley | MB | Alabama |
2.8 | Jeremiah Attaochu | ER | Georgia Tech |
3.8 | Ka’Deem Carey | RB | Arizona |
3.32 | Jarvis Landry | FL | LSU |
Forecaster’s Board | |||
Picks | Player | Pos | School |
1.8 | C.J. Mosley | MB | Alabama |
2.8 | Jeremiah Attaochu | ER | Georgia Tech |
3.8 | Charles Sims | RB | West Virginia |
3.32 | Jared Abbrederis | FL | Wisconsin |
Evaluator’s Board | |||
Picks | Player | Pos | School |
1.8 | C.J. Mosley | MB | Alabama |
2.8 | Jeremiah Attaochu | ER | Georgia Tech |
3.8 | Ka’Deem Carey | RB | Arizona |
3.32 | Jarvis Landry | FL | LSU |
It’s also possible to use each of the individual boards to create a “value chart” for each player, and evaluate each mock based on how much value, relative to their draft position, they were able to generate.
Mock Board | Consensus | Forecaster | Evaluator | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | Value | Team | Value | Team | Value | Team | Value |
MIA | 130.8% | KC | 146.2% | MIA | 149.9% | CHI | 149.6% |
SD | 125.4% | STL | 139.3% | TB | 129.1% | SF | 134.7% |
SEA | 119.4% | SEA | 136.5% | SEA | 123.7% | MIA | 132.7% |
CHI | 119.3% | CHI | 134.7% | MIN | 122.6% | SEA | 120.3% |
SF | 118.4% | OAK | 132.0% | CHI | 116.1% | DEN | 118.6% |
WSH | 115.5% | DET | 122.9% | KC | 114.4% | WSH | 118.0% |
NYJ | 114.5% | NYJ | 120.2% | SD | 113.2% | TB | 118.0% |
GB | 112.5% | DAL | 117.3% | SF | 112.9% | KC | 117.9% |
BAL | 110.5% | SF | 114.0% | DEN | 111.9% | DAL | 117.6% |
DET | 110.0% | PHI | 114.0% | IND | 110.8% | NYJ | 115.6% |
DEN | 105.5% | WSH | 110.8% | NYJ | 110.1% | GB | 114.7% |
TEN | 105.5% | PIT | 103.2% | CIN | 109.3% | DET | 112.5% |
PHI | 105.2% | DEN | 102.3% | DAL | 108.7% | JAX | 110.7% |
IND | 103.2% | GB | 98.8% | DET | 107.7% | STL | 109.7% |
HOU | 102.8% | HOU | 96.6% | BAL | 107.5% | HOU | 109.2% |
MIN | 102.8% | BAL | 96.5% | PIT | 107.5% | PHI | 106.1% |
OAK | 102.3% | MIA | 96.4% | PHI | 105.3% | CIN | 104.7% |
STL | 101.8% | TEN | 95.1% | CAR | 105.0% | BAL | 102.7% |
NE | 101.5% | NYG | 94.5% | CLE | 103.7% | ARI | 100.7% |
CAR | 100.6% | JAX | 94.4% | JAX | 102.3% | NYG | 99.0% |
JAX | 99.3% | CAR | 93.7% | STL | 101.5% | CAR | 97.5% |
KC | 98.4% | TB | 93.6% | ATL | 99.4% | CLE | 96.6% |
CIN | 96.5% | BUF | 93.0% | OAK | 95.4% | TEN | 96.1% |
ATL | 96.2% | ARI | 92.5% | GB | 92.7% | OAK | 96.0% |
DAL | 95.3% | CLE | 92.1% | HOU | 92.0% | ATL | 93.5% |
PIT | 95.0% | CIN | 87.9% | WSH | 89.5% | BUF | 90.4% |
ARI | 94.9% | MIN | 87.2% | NYG | 89.2% | PIT | 90.1% |
TB | 94.8% | SD | 86.7% | TEN | 88.3% | MIN | 87.7% |
NO | 92.4% | NO | 83.2% | ARI | 87.8% | NO | 87.4% |
CLE | 92.1% | ATL | 81.1% | NO | 87.5% | SD | 79.9% |
NYG | 91.1% | NE | 74.3% | NE | 85.8% | NE | 70.2% |
BUF | 74.4% | IND | 62.5% | BUF | 68.5% | IND | 69.4% |
Depending on the type of board used, Minnesota fares extremely well (the forecaster’s board), average (mocker’s board), or poorly (consensus and evaluator boards). A lot of that value is contingent on a player like Jarvis Landry dropping as he did. Most interesting will be to see how the boards compare against some of the experts that helped construct it.
In either case, it’s just a way of passing the time until the draft actually happens. People seem fairly confident Minnesota will either land C.J. Mosley or Blake Bortles. What do you think?