A few days ago, I put together a consensus big board (to be updated on Tuesday) and contrasted the difference between the types of “Top 100″ boards people will put together before the draft. An interesting corollary to that are the mock drafts released by endless publications both online and in magazines.

This time, I put together a consensus mock draft. Or rather, four of them.

 

It was a little bit of a different process, and instead of something simple like averaging player ranks (or in this case, draft position) there were a few ways to construct a mock draft that reflected the consensus of the industry (there are also a number of ways to construct a big board aside from averages, but that’s neither here nor there).

The first mock draft is a cascading mock that takes the aggregate of all the mocks out there to give the team the player most mocked to them, with the only limitation being that any players already chosen are of course not eligible.

This does create interesting issues; Sammy Watkins was the most mocked player to both the Oakland Raiders and the Cleveland Browns in earlier versions (with fewer mocks in the database) for the draft, despite Watkins not being drafted by either team in most mock drafts. Sometimes, the consensus player for that team isn’t available, and there’s no clear-cut favorite after that (each player only once getting mocked to the team in question). In those cases, I simply deferred to the consensus big board to break the tie.

Based on 45 mock drafts, here’s a two-round mock draft based on who got mocked most to whom

“Cascade” Consensus Mock
Pick Team Player Position School
1.1 HOU Jadeveon Clowney ER South Carolina
1.2 STL Greg Robinson OT Auburn
1.3 JAX Khalil Mack OB Buffalo
1.4 CLE Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M
1.5 OAK Sammy Watkins SE Clemson
1.6 ATL Jake Matthews OT Texas A&M
1.7  TB Mike Evans SE Texas A&M
1.8 MIN Blake Bortles QB UCF
1.9 BUF Taylor Lewan OT Michigan
1.10 DET Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma State
1.11 TEN Anthony Barr ER UCLA
1.12 NYG Aaron Donald 3T Pittsburgh
1.13 STL Ha Ha Clinton-Dix FS Alabama
1.14 CHI Calvin Pryor SS Louisville
1.15 PIT Darqueze Dennard CB Michigan State
1.16 DAL Timmy Jernigan NT Florida State
1.17 BAL Zack Martin IL Notre Dame
1.18 NYJ Odell Beckham SE LSU
1.19 MIA Eric Ebron TE North Carolina
1.20 ARI Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville
1.21  GB C.J. Mosley MB Alabama
1.22 PHI Brandin Cooks SL Oregon State
1.23  KC Marqise Lee SE Southern California
1.24 CIN Kyle Fuller CB Virginia Tech
1.25  SD Louis Nix NT Notre Dame
1.26 CLE Derek Carr QB Fresno State
1.27  NO Dee Ford ER Auburn
1.28 CAR Morgan Moses OT Virginia
1.29  NE Ra’Shede Hageman 5T Minnesota
1.30  SF Bradley Roby CB Ohio State
1.31 DEN Xavier Su’a-Filo IL UCLA
1.32 SEA Stephon Tuitt 5T Notre Dame
2.1 HOU Tom Savage QB Pittsburgh
2.2 WSH Cyrus Kouandjio OT Alabama
2.3 CLE Carlos Hyde RB Ohio State
2.4 OAK Kyle Van Noy OB Brigham Young
2.5 ATL Kony Ealy ER Missouri
2.6  TB Gabe Jackson IL Mississippi State
2.7 JAX Jimmy Garoppolo QB Eastern Illinois
2.8 MIN Jason Verrett CB TCU
2.9 BUF Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Washington
2.10 TEN Tre Mason RB Auburn
2.11 NYG Jace Amaro TE Texas Tech
2.12 STL Kelvin Benjamin SE Florida State
2.13 DET Lamarcus Joyner FS Florida State
2.14 PIT Dominique Easley 3T Florida
2.15 DAL Scott Crichton ER Oregon State
2.16 BAL Jimmie Ward FS Northern Illinois
2.17 NYJ Jeremiah Attaochu ER Georgia Tech
2.18 MIA David Yankey IL Stanford
2.19 CHI Deone Bucannon SS Washington State
2.20 ARI Zach Mettenberger QB LSU
2.21  GB Troy Niklas TE Notre Dame
2.22 PHI Demarcus Lawrence ER Boise State
2.23 CIN Kareem Martin ER North Carolina
2.24  SF Jordan Matthews SE Vanderbilt
2.25  SD Marcus Martin IL Southern California
2.26  NO Davante Adams FL Fresno State
2.27 IND Trent Murphy ER Stanford
2.28 CAR Jarvis Landry FL LSU
2.29  SF DaQuan Jones NT Penn State
2.30  NE Jeremy Hill RB LSU
2.31 DEN Chris Borland MB Wisconsin
2.32 SEA Donte Moncrief SE Ole Miss

This kind of mock draft doesn’t miss much—there are very rarely players that fall out of the top 64 entirely and this generally fits need, scheme and talent. It’s probably the simplest type of mock to do, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a way to improve on it.

Generally speaking, it’s a bit of an odd mock simply because there weren’t many mocks that went all the way through to the second round, and a few picked Tom Savage for the Houston Texans, which seems incredulous at best. Donte Moncrief, Marcus Martin and Kareem Martin seemed to go kind of high, too.

The fact that it doesn’t have Joel Bitonio or Ja’Wuan James is likely a problem given the need for offensive linemen and their general talent level, and Ryan Shazier seems to be an odd missing piece from the top 64 picks. Other players that probably deserve to get picked in the first two rounds didn’t, like Allen Robinson, Weston Richburg and Pierre Desir.

Another approach is to prioritize accuracy. We know there are experts out there who do a very good job (relatively speaking) of placing players in the first round and matching players to teams. The Huddle Report continuously scores the top mock drafters in the country, so we generally have a good idea of who to best pay attention to.

The second kind of mock draft functionally creates a voting system between those accurate mockers, where they get points for each pick proportional to their score in THR’s mock draft contests. The player with the most points at each pick gets picked and so on down the line (again, players who were picked earlier in the draft were ineligible). This process took a lot longer than I thought it would, and while some teams only had three to four players receive votes for their pick (like Houston), others had a wide range (Baltimore had a different pick from nearly each mocker, 13 in all).

Bob McGinn and Jason Boris haven’t released a mock draft yet, so I haven’t included them, but most of the other experts ranked in the top twenty had input in the following one round mock, “voted” on by experts:

“Expert” Voting Mock
Pick Team Player Position School
1 HOU Jadeveon Clowney ER South Carolina
2 STL Greg Robinson OT Auburn
3 JAX Sammy Watkins SE Clemson
4 CLE Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M
5 OAK Khalil Mack OB Buffalo
6 ATL Jake Matthews OT Texas A&M
7  TB Mike Evans SE Texas A&M
8 MIN Blake Bortles QB UCF
9 BUF Eric Ebron TE North Carolina
10 DET Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma State
11 TEN Anthony Barr ER UCLA
12 NYG Aaron Donald 3T Pittsburgh
13 STL Ha Ha Clinton-Dix FS Alabama
14 CHI Ra’Shede Hageman 5T Minnesota
15 PIT Darqueze Dennard CB Michigan State
16 DAL Zack Martin IL Notre Dame
17 BAL Kony Ealy ER Missouri
18 NYJ Brandin Cooks SL Oregon State
19 MIA C.J. Mosley MB Alabama
20 ARI Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville
21  GB Calvin Pryor SS Louisville
22 PHI Dee Ford ER Auburn
23  KC Marqise Lee SE Southern California
24 CIN Bradley Roby CB Ohio State
25  SD Jason Verrett CB TCU
26 CLE Derek Carr QB Fresno State
27  NO Cody Latimer SE Indiana
28 CAR Morgan Moses OT Virginia
29  NE Louis Nix NT Notre Dame
30  SF Jordan Matthews SE Vanderbilt
31 DEN Ryan Shazier OB Ohio State
32 SEA Stephon Tuitt 5T Notre Dame

In this situation, because experts are basically only providing input to teams based on their own personal mock instead of the board at large in the consensus mock, you are likely to see players inexplicably excluded from the first round, even if none of the individual mockers sees that sort of thing happen (or expects it to).

In this case, there’s a glaring lack of players like Taylor Lewan and Odell Beckham, while it seems like at least one of Kyle Fuller, Timmy Jernigan, Xavier Su’a-Filo and Cyrus Kouandjio would sniff the first round if not two. There are no particularly eye-brow raising conclusions, and it seems like Cody Latimer’s recent rise has been incorporated by many of the drafters contributing. There is a good chance that one of Jordan Matthews, Stephon Tuitt or Dee Ford do not make it into the first round, though it is difficult to say who, exactly (my money would be on Ford).

The last way to organize a “consensus” mock draft is to ignore the players specifically and focus on the positions—many of the successful mock drafters do a good job of figuring out who needs what and then figure out the best players at those positions. We can circumvent the process by simply taking the positions they mock and draft from there. There are three or for different approaches to take.

The first is simply to trust those mock drafters in ranking the players and use their mocked player ranks (not big boards) as in-situ player rankings.

The second is to use the big board constructed from the consensus work done earlier and give teams the best player at the positions they need.

If we’re more interested in forecasting, we could grab the “forecaster” specific board and use those functional positional rankings to slot players. If we’re more interested in telling teams what they should do, then we can use our “evaluator” board, assuming that the difference between the two is actually meaningful.

For this mock draft, I took the two positions most mocked by drafters and functionally made them equal, giving them the player who ranked highest on whichever draft board I was using of the two best-ranked players at each “need” position. This should create some serious scheme fit issues, but it doesn’t really look all that bad.

For example, Houston’s two most common picks were an edge rusher and a quarterback. Because Jadeveon Clowney is at the top of the talent board, the Texans picked him over whichever QB was ranked at the top (which was different depending on which board you used).

They are all three-round mocks. The first one uses the mock drafters’ own functional consensus board along with their mocked positions:

“Positional” Mock—Drafter Board
Pick Team Mock Pos School
1.1 HOU Jadeveon Clowney ER South Carolina
1.2 STL Greg Robinson OT Auburn
1.3 JAX Khalil Mack OB Buffalo
1.4 CLE Sammy Watkins SE Clemson
1.5 OAK Mike Evans SE Texas A&M
1.6 ATL Jake Matthews OT Texas A&M
1.7  TB Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M
1.8 MIN Blake Bortles QB UCF
1.9 BUF Taylor Lewan OT Michigan
1.10 DET Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma State
1.11 TEN Anthony Barr ER UCLA
1.12 NYG Aaron Donald 3T Pittsburgh
1.13 STL Ha Ha Clinton-Dix FS Alabama
1.14 CHI Darqueze Dennard CB Michigan State
1.15 PIT Odell Beckham SE LSU
1.16 DAL Calvin Pryor SS Louisville
1.17 BAL Zack Martin IL Notre Dame
1.18 NYJ Kyle Fuller CB Virginia Tech
1.19 MIA Morgan Moses OT Virginia
1.20 ARI Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville
1.21  GB C.J. Mosley MB Alabama
1.22 PHI Marqise Lee SE Southern California
1.23  KC Brandin Cooks SL Oregon State
1.24 CIN Bradley Roby CB Ohio State
1.25  SD Jason Verrett CB TCU
1.26 CLE Derek Carr QB Fresno State
1.27  NO Dee Ford ER Auburn
1.28 CAR Cyrus Kouandjio OT Alabama
1.29  NE Ra’Shede Hageman 5T Minnesota
1.30  SF Kelvin Benjamin SE Florida State
1.31 DEN Xavier Su’a-Filo IL UCLA
1.32 SEA Joel Bitonio OT Nevada
2.1 HOU Jimmy Garoppolo QB Eastern Illinois
2.2 WSH Stephon Tuitt 5T Notre Dame
2.3 CLE Ryan Shazier OB Ohio State
2.4 OAK Jimmie Ward FS Northern Illinois
2.5 ATL Kony Ealy ER Missouri
2.6  TB Cody Latimer SE Indiana
2.7 JAX Tom Savage QB Pittsburgh
2.8 MIN James Gayle ER Virginia Tech
2.9 BUF Eric Ebron TE North Carolina
2.10 TEN Demarcus Lawrence ER Boise State
2.11 NYG Jace Amaro TE Texas Tech
2.12 STL Jordan Matthews SE Vanderbilt
2.13 DET Lamarcus Joyner FS Florida State
2.14 PIT Timmy Jernigan NT Florida State
2.15 DAL Louis Nix NT Notre Dame
2.16 BAL Antonio Richardson OT Tennessee
2.17 NYJ Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Washington
2.18 MIA Tyler Larsen IL Utah State
2.19 CHI Carlos Hyde RB Ohio State
2.20 ARI Zach Mettenberger QB LSU
2.21  GB Troy Niklas TE Notre Dame
2.22 PHI Jeremiah Attaochu ER Georgia Tech
2.23 CIN Scott Crichton ER Oregon State
2.24  SF Kareem Martin ER North Carolina
2.25  SD Trent Murphy ER Stanford
2.26  NO Allen Robinson FL Penn State
2.27 IND Deone Bucannon SS Washington State
2.28 CAR Davante Adams FL Fresno State
2.29  SF Keith McGill CB Utah
2.30  NE Tyler Gaffney RB Stanford
2.31 DEN Donte Moncrief SE Ole Miss
2.32 SEA Shaquille Richardson CB Arizona
3.1 HOU Tre Mason RB Auburn
3.2 WSH Marcus Smith ER Louisville
3.3 OAK Kyle Van Noy OB Brigham Young
3.4 ATL Stanley Jean-Baptiste CB Nebraska
3.5  TB Dominique Easley 3T Florida
3.6 JAX David Yankey IL Stanford
3.7 CLE Jeremy Hill RB LSU
3.8 MIN Bishop Sankey RB Washington
3.9 BUF Ja’Wuan James OT Tennessee
3.10 NYG Marcus Martin IL Southern California
3.11 STL Pierre Desir CB Lindenwood
3.12 DET Phillip Gaines CB Rice
3.13  SF Aaron Lynch ER South Florida
3.14 DAL Gabe Jackson IL Mississippi State
3.15 BAL Ego Ferguson 3T LSU
3.16 NYJ Bashaud Breeland CB Clemson
3.17 MIA Terrence Brooks FS Florida State
3.18 CHI Will Sutton 3T Arizona State
3.19 CLE Chris Borland MB Wisconsin
3.20 ARI Jalen Saunders SL Oklahoma
3.21  GB Tyler Starr OB South Dakota
3.22 PHI Dontae Johnson CB North Carolina State
3.23  KC Weston Richburg IL Colorado State
3.24 CIN A.J. McCarron QB Alabama
3.25  SD Josh Huff SL Oregon
3.26 IND Marcus Roberson CB Florida
3.27  NO Seantrel Henderson OT Miami (Fla.)
3.28 CAR Martavis Bryant SE Clemson
3.29  NE Jackson Jeffcoat ER Texas
3.30  SF Trai Turner IL LSU
3.31 DEN Jaylen Watkins CB Florida
3.32 MIN Kevin Norwood FL Alabama
3.33 PIT Brent Urban 5T Virginia
3.34  GB C.J. Fiedorowicz TE Iowa
3.35 BAL Paul Richardson SE Colorado
3.36  SF Andre Williams RB Boston College

I suppose Bengals fans could get another Andy Dalton in A.J. McCarron, and Tyler Starr should be pretty happy with what this implies, but it does feel off. Shaquille Richardson is an interesting add for the Seahawks, but he does have above average arm length for his position (and height) and plays off of feel and reading the QB in zone, so it’s not entirely off… just a few rounds early.

Notable are the people entirely missing from the three rounds: Shayne Skov, Jarvis Landry, DaQuan Jones and Cyril Richardson. Also, Eric Ebron’s drop is notable.

Here’s a positional mock that uses the positions mockers like to draft, but the consensus board established a few days ago (it is constantly updating, incidentally—full update on Wednesday). Here’s what those three rounds look like:

“Positional” Mock—Consensus Board
Pick Team Mock Pos School
1.1 HOU Jadeveon Clowney ER South Carolina
1.2 STL Greg Robinson OT Auburn
1.3 JAX Khalil Mack OB Buffalo
1.4 CLE Sammy Watkins SE Clemson
1.5 OAK Mike Evans SE Texas A&M
1.6 ATL Jake Matthews OT Texas A&M
1.7  TB Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville
1.8 MIN C.J. Mosley MB Alabama
1.9 BUF Eric Ebron TE North Carolina
1.10 DET Darqueze Dennard CB Michigan State
1.11 TEN Anthony Barr ER UCLA
1.12 NYG Aaron Donald 3T Pittsburgh
1.13 STL Ha Ha Clinton-Dix FS Alabama
1.14 CHI Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma State
1.15 PIT Odell Beckham SE LSU
1.16 DAL Kony Ealy ER Missouri
1.17 BAL Taylor Lewan OT Michigan
1.18 NYJ Marqise Lee SE Southern California
1.19 MIA Zack Martin IL Notre Dame
1.20 ARI Blake Bortles QB UCF
1.21  GB Ryan Shazier OB Ohio State
1.22 PHI Brandin Cooks SL Oregon State
1.23  KC Kelvin Benjamin SE Florida State
1.24 CIN Jason Verrett CB TCU
1.25  SD Louis Nix NT Notre Dame
1.26 CLE Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M
1.27  NO Kyle Fuller CB Virginia Tech
1.28 CAR Cyrus Kouandjio OT Alabama
1.29  NE Ra’Shede Hageman 5T Minnesota
1.30  SF Bradley Roby CB Ohio State
1.31 DEN Xavier Su’a-Filo IL UCLA
1.32 SEA Morgan Moses OT Virginia
2.1 HOU Derek Carr QB Fresno State
2.2 WSH Stephon Tuitt 5T Notre Dame
2.3 CLE Kyle Van Noy OB Brigham Young
2.4 OAK Jimmie Ward FS Northern Illinois
2.5 ATL Dee Ford ER Auburn
2.6  TB Jordan Matthews SE Vanderbilt
2.7 JAX Jimmy Garoppolo QB Eastern Illinois
2.8 MIN Jeremiah Attaochu ER Georgia Tech
2.9 BUF Jace Amaro TE Texas Tech
2.10 TEN Carlos Hyde RB Ohio State
2.11 NYG Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Washington
2.12 STL Lamarcus Joyner FS Florida State
2.13 DET Joel Bitonio OT Nevada
2.14 PIT Timmy Jernigan NT Florida State
2.15 DAL Dominique Easley 3T Florida
2.16 BAL Antonio Richardson OT Tennessee
2.17 NYJ Scott Crichton ER Oregon State
2.18 MIA Gabe Jackson IL Mississippi State
2.19 CHI Bishop Sankey RB Washington
2.20 ARI Trent Murphy ER Stanford
2.21  GB Troy Niklas TE Notre Dame
2.22 PHI Demarcus Lawrence ER Boise State
2.23 CIN David Yankey IL Stanford
2.24  SF Donte Moncrief SE Ole Miss
2.25  SD DaQuan Jones NT Penn State
2.26  NO Allen Robinson FL Penn State
2.27 IND Calvin Pryor SS Louisville
2.28 CAR Davante Adams FL Fresno State
2.29  SF Pierre Desir CB Lindenwood
2.30  NE Tre Mason RB Auburn
2.31 DEN Chris Borland MB Wisconsin
2.32 SEA Stanley Jean-Baptiste CB Nebraska
3.1 HOU Jeremy Hill RB LSU
3.2 WSH Marcus Smith ER Louisville
3.3 OAK Carl Bradford ER Arizona State
3.4 ATL Chris Smith ER Arkansas
3.5  TB Will Sutton 3T Arizona State
3.6 JAX Weston Richburg IL Colorado State
3.7 CLE Charles Sims RB West Virginia
3.8 MIN Ka’Deem Carey RB Arizona
3.9 BUF Ja’Wuan James OT Tennessee
3.10 NYG Cyril Richardson IL Baylor
3.11 STL Marcus Roberson CB Florida
3.12 DET Keith McGill CB Utah
3.13  SF Ego Ferguson 3T LSU
3.14 DAL Travis Swanson IL Arkansas
3.15 BAL Lache Seastrunk RB Baylor
3.16 NYJ Jaylen Watkins CB Florida
3.17 MIA Terrence Brooks FS Florida State
3.18 CHI Kelcy Quarles 3T South Carolina
3.19 CLE Telvin Smith MB Florida State
3.20 ARI Bruce Ellington SL South Carolina
3.21  GB Christian Jones OB Florida State
3.22 PHI Kareem Martin ER North Carolina
3.23  KC Marcus Martin IL Southern California
3.24 CIN Zach Mettenberger QB LSU
3.25  SD Jack Mewhort OT Ohio State
3.26 IND Bashaud Breeland CB Clemson
3.27  NO Billy Turner OT North Dakota State
3.28 CAR Paul Richardson SE Colorado
3.29  NE Jackson Jeffcoat ER Texas
3.30  SF Brandon Thomas IL Clemson
3.31 DEN E.J. Gaines CB Missouri
3.32 MIN Jarvis Landry FL LSU
3.33 PIT Trevor Reilly ER Utah
3.34  GB C.J. Fiedorowicz TE Iowa
3.35 BAL Martavis Bryant SE Clemson
3.36  SF Andre Williams RB Boston College

The top of the draft looks identical this way, with the changes coming from Tampa Bay’s pick on. The bottom of the draft is a lot less wonky and despite what looks to be a reach for Trevor Reilly and Andre Williams, teams did a better job avoiding issues. The Vikings took advantage of a larger-than-expected fall for Jarvis Landry. The consensus board does not seem to have incorporated Brandon Thomas’ injury, so he should probably not be in these first three rounds.

Players undrafted in the top three who probably deserved to go higher: Deone Bucannon, Shayne Skov and Cody Latimer.

When you look at the “forecaster” board, things begin to change a little.

“Positional” Mock—Forecaster Board
Pick Team Mock Pos School
1.1 HOU Jadeveon Clowney ER South Carolina
1.2 STL Greg Robinson OT Auburn
1.3 JAX Sammy Watkins SE Clemson
1.4 CLE Mike Evans SE Texas A&M
1.5 OAK Khalil Mack OB Buffalo
1.6 ATL Jake Matthews OT Texas A&M
1.7  TB Odell Beckham SE LSU
1.8 MIN C.J. Mosley MB Alabama
1.9 BUF Taylor Lewan OT Michigan
1.10 DET Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma State
1.11 TEN Anthony Barr ER UCLA
1.12 NYG Aaron Donald 3T Pittsburgh
1.13 STL Ha Ha Clinton-Dix FS Alabama
1.14 CHI Darqueze Dennard CB Michigan State
1.15 PIT Marqise Lee SE Southern California
1.16 DAL Calvin Pryor SS Louisville
1.17 BAL Zack Martin IL Notre Dame
1.18 NYJ Kyle Fuller CB Virginia Tech
1.19 MIA Cyrus Kouandjio OT Alabama
1.20 ARI Blake Bortles QB UCF
1.21  GB Ryan Shazier OB Ohio State
1.22 PHI Brandin Cooks SL Oregon State
1.23  KC Kelvin Benjamin SE Florida State
1.24 CIN Bradley Roby CB Ohio State
1.25  SD Timmy Jernigan NT Florida State
1.26 CLE Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville
1.27  NO Kony Ealy ER Missouri
1.28 CAR Morgan Moses OT Virginia
1.29  NE Ra’Shede Hageman 5T Minnesota
1.30  SF Jason Verrett CB TCU
1.31 DEN Xavier Su’a-Filo IL UCLA
1.32 SEA Joel Bitonio OT Nevada
2.1 HOU Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M
2.2 WSH Stephon Tuitt 5T Notre Dame
2.3 CLE Davante Adams FL Fresno State
2.4 OAK Derek Carr QB Fresno State
2.5 ATL Dee Ford ER Auburn
2.6  TB Jordan Matthews SE Vanderbilt
2.7 JAX Jimmy Garoppolo QB Eastern Illinois
2.8 MIN Jeremiah Attaochu ER Georgia Tech
2.9 BUF Eric Ebron TE North Carolina
2.10 TEN Carlos Hyde RB Ohio State
2.11 NYG Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Washington
2.12 STL Jimmie Ward FS Northern Illinois
2.13 DET Ja’Wuan James OT Tennessee
2.14 PIT Louis Nix NT Notre Dame
2.15 DAL Dominique Easley 3T Florida
2.16 BAL Antonio Richardson OT Tennessee
2.17 NYJ Jace Amaro TE Texas Tech
2.18 MIA Gabe Jackson IL Mississippi State
2.19 CHI Tre Mason RB Auburn
2.20 ARI Scott Crichton ER Oregon State
2.21  GB Troy Niklas TE Notre Dame
2.22 PHI Demarcus Lawrence ER Boise State
2.23 CIN Trent Murphy ER Stanford
2.24  SF Donte Moncrief SE Ole Miss
2.25  SD DaQuan Jones NT Penn State
2.26  NO Allen Robinson FL Penn State
2.27 IND Deone Bucannon SS Washington State
2.28 CAR Jarvis Landry FL LSU
2.29  SF Keith McGill CB Utah
2.30  NE Bishop Sankey RB Washington
2.31 DEN Paul Richardson SE Colorado
2.32 SEA Stanley Jean-Baptiste CB Nebraska
3.1 HOU Jeremy Hill RB LSU
3.2 WSH Lamarcus Joyner FS Florida State
3.3 OAK Christian Jones OB Florida State
3.4 ATL Marcus Smith ER Louisville
3.5  TB Ego Ferguson 3T LSU
3.6 JAX Weston Richburg IL Colorado State
3.7 CLE Ka’Deem Carey RB Arizona
3.8 MIN Charles Sims RB West Virginia
3.9 BUF Jack Mewhort OT Ohio State
3.10 NYG David Yankey IL Stanford
3.11 STL Marcus Roberson CB Florida
3.12 DET Bashaud Breeland CB Clemson
3.13  SF Anthony Johnson 3T LSU
3.14 DAL Cyril Richardson IL Baylor
3.15 BAL Will Sutton 3T Arizona State
3.16 NYJ Phillip Gaines CB Rice
3.17 MIA Ed Reynolds FS Stanford
3.18 CHI Kelcy Quarles 3T South Carolina
3.19 CLE Chris Borland MB Wisconsin
3.20 ARI Josh Huff SL Oregon
3.21  GB C.J. Fiedorowicz OB Iowa
3.22 PHI Carl Bradford ER Arizona State
3.23  KC Marcus Martin IL Southern California
3.24 CIN Zach Mettenberger QB LSU
3.25  SD Cameron Fleming OT Stanford
3.26 IND Jaylen Watkins CB Florida
3.27  NO Brandon Thomas IL Clemson
3.28 CAR Cody Latimer SE Indiana
3.29  NE Jackson Jeffcoat ER Texas
3.30  SF Travis Swanson IL Arkansas
3.31 DEN Chris Smith ER Arkansas
3.32 MIN Jared Abbrederis FL Wisconsin
3.33 PIT Taylor Hart 5T Oregon
3.34  GB Colt Lyerla TE Oregon
3.35 BAL Brandon Coleman SE Rutgers
3.36  SF Terrance West RB Towson

I’m not so sure Colt Lyerla makes any sense there, but I like seeing Taylor Hart where he is. Undrafted: Martavis Bryant, A.J. McCarron, Pierre Desir, Lache Seastrunk.

Sammy Watkins at three instead of four changed quite a few things, and the fact that Mike Evans was ranked really highly by the forecasters only made the top five a lot more unpredictable.

Finally, there’s the same positional mock, but using the “evaluator board” to fill in the positions:

“Positional” Mock—Evaluator Board
Pick Team Mock Pos School
1.1 HOU Jadeveon Clowney ER South Carolina
1.2 STL Jake Matthews OT Texas A&M
1.3 JAX Khalil Mack OB Buffalo
1.4 CLE Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville
1.5 OAK Sammy Watkins SE Clemson
1.6 ATL Greg Robinson OT Auburn
1.7  TB Derek Carr QB Fresno State
1.8 MIN C.J. Mosley MB Alabama
1.9 BUF Eric Ebron TE North Carolina
1.10 DET Darqueze Dennard CB Michigan State
1.11 TEN Anthony Barr ER UCLA
1.12 NYG Aaron Donald 3T Pittsburgh
1.13 STL Jason Verrett CB TCU
1.14 CHI Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma State
1.15 PIT Mike Evans SE Texas A&M
1.16 DAL Kony Ealy ER Missouri
1.17 BAL Taylor Lewan OT Michigan
1.18 NYJ Odell Beckham SE LSU
1.19 MIA Xavier Su’a-Filo IL UCLA
1.20 ARI Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M
1.21  GB Ryan Shazier OB Ohio State
1.22 PHI Marqise Lee SE Southern California
1.23  KC Brandin Cooks SL Oregon State
1.24 CIN Bradley Roby CB Ohio State
1.25  SD Louis Nix NT Notre Dame
1.26 CLE Blake Bortles QB UCF
1.27  NO Kyle Fuller CB Virginia Tech
1.28 CAR Jordan Matthews SE Vanderbilt
1.29  NE Ra’Shede Hageman 5T Minnesota
1.30  SF Kelvin Benjamin SE Florida State
1.31 DEN Gabe Jackson IL Mississippi State
1.32 SEA Cyrus Kouandjio OT Alabama
2.1 HOU Jimmy Garoppolo QB Eastern Illinois
2.2 WSH Stephon Tuitt 5T Notre Dame
2.3 CLE Kyle Van Noy OB Brigham Young
2.4 OAK Ha Ha Clinton-Dix FS Alabama
2.5 ATL Dee Ford ER Auburn
2.6  TB Morgan Moses OT Virginia
2.7 JAX Zach Mettenberger QB LSU
2.8 MIN Jeremiah Attaochu ER Georgia Tech
2.9 BUF Jace Amaro TE Texas Tech
2.10 TEN Carlos Hyde RB Ohio State
2.11 NYG Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Washington
2.12 STL Jimmie Ward FS Northern Illinois
2.13 DET Lamarcus Joyner FS Florida State
2.14 PIT Timmy Jernigan NT Florida State
2.15 DAL Dominique Easley 3T Florida
2.16 BAL Antonio Richardson OT Tennessee
2.17 NYJ Scott Crichton ER Oregon State
2.18 MIA David Yankey IL Stanford
2.19 CHI Pierre Desir CB Lindenwood
2.20 ARI Marcus Smith ER Louisville
2.21  GB Troy Niklas TE Notre Dame
2.22 PHI Trent Murphy ER Stanford
2.23 CIN Cyril Richardson IL Baylor
2.24  SF Demarcus Lawrence ER Boise State
2.25  SD DaQuan Jones NT Penn State
2.26  NO Allen Robinson FL Penn State
2.27 IND Calvin Pryor SS Louisville
2.28 CAR Davante Adams FL Fresno State
2.29  SF Stanley Jean-Baptiste CB Nebraska
2.30  NE Bishop Sankey RB Washington
2.31 DEN Chris Borland MB Wisconsin
2.32 SEA Donte Moncrief CB Ole Miss
3.1 HOU Tre Mason RB Auburn
3.2 WSH Carl Bradford ER Arizona State
3.3 OAK Christian Jones OB Florida State
3.4 ATL Chris Smith ER Arkansas
3.5  TB Will Sutton 3T Arizona State
3.6 JAX Weston Richburg IL Colorado State
3.7 CLE Lache Seastrunk RB Baylor
3.8 MIN Ka’Deem Carey RB Arizona
3.9 BUF Billy Turner OT North Dakota State
3.10 NYG Travis Swanson IL Arkansas
3.11 STL Marcus Roberson CB Florida
3.12 DET E.J. Gaines CB Missouri
3.13  SF Ego Ferguson 3T LSU
3.14 DAL Brandon Thomas IL Clemson
3.15 BAL Jeremy Hill RB LSU
3.16 NYJ Jaylen Watkins CB Florida
3.17 MIA Terrence Brooks FS Florida State
3.18 CHI Caraun Reid 3T Princeton
3.19 CLE Telvin Smith MB Florida State
3.20 ARI Bruce Ellington SL South Carolina
3.21  GB C.J. Fiedorowicz OB Iowa
3.22 PHI Jackson Jeffcoat ER Texas
3.23  KC Keith McGill CB Utah
3.24 CIN Jack Mewhort OT Ohio State
3.25  SD Joel Bitonio OT Nevada
3.26 IND Terrance Mitchell CB Oregon
3.27  NO Ja’Wuan James OT Tennessee
3.28 CAR Aaron Lynch ER South Florida
3.29  NE Kareem Martin ER North Carolina
3.30  SF Trevor Reilly ER Utah
3.31 DEN Vic Hampton CB South Carolina
3.32 MIN Jarvis Landry FL LSU
3.33 PIT Jordan Tripp ER Montana
3.34  GB Richard Rodgers TE California
3.35 BAL Paul Richardson SE Colorado
3.36  SF Andre Williams RB Boston College

This one is a lot higher on Eric Ebron, and he finally goes early. For Minnesota, the final mocks do not end up looking all that different from each other and might provide an interesting preview of what’s to come on draft day:

Cascade Mock
Picks Player Pos School
1.8 Blake Bortles QB UCF
2.8 Jason Verrett CB TCU
Voting Mock
Picks Player Pos School
1.8 Blake Bortles QB UCF
Mocker’s Board
Picks Player Pos School
1.8 Blake Bortles QB UCF
2.8 James Gayle ER Virginia Tech
3.8 Bishop Sankey RB Washington
3.32 Kevin Norwood FL Alabama
Consensus Board
Picks Player Pos School
1.8 C.J. Mosley MB Alabama
2.8 Jeremiah Attaochu ER Georgia Tech
3.8 Ka’Deem Carey RB Arizona
3.32 Jarvis Landry FL LSU
Forecaster’s Board
Picks Player Pos School
1.8 C.J. Mosley MB Alabama
2.8 Jeremiah Attaochu ER Georgia Tech
3.8 Charles Sims RB West Virginia
3.32 Jared Abbrederis FL Wisconsin
Evaluator’s Board
Picks Player Pos School
1.8 C.J. Mosley MB Alabama
2.8 Jeremiah Attaochu ER Georgia Tech
3.8 Ka’Deem Carey RB Arizona
3.32 Jarvis Landry FL LSU

It’s also possible to use each of the individual boards to create a “value chart” for each player, and evaluate each mock based on how much value, relative to their draft position, they were able to generate.

Mock Board Consensus Forecaster Evaluator
Team Value Team Value Team Value Team Value
MIA 130.8%  KC 146.2% MIA 149.9% CHI 149.6%
 SD 125.4% STL 139.3%  TB 129.1%  SF 134.7%
SEA 119.4% SEA 136.5% SEA 123.7% MIA 132.7%
CHI 119.3% CHI 134.7% MIN 122.6% SEA 120.3%
 SF 118.4% OAK 132.0% CHI 116.1% DEN 118.6%
WSH 115.5% DET 122.9%  KC 114.4% WSH 118.0%
NYJ 114.5% NYJ 120.2%  SD 113.2%  TB 118.0%
 GB 112.5% DAL 117.3%  SF 112.9%  KC 117.9%
BAL 110.5%  SF 114.0% DEN 111.9% DAL 117.6%
DET 110.0% PHI 114.0% IND 110.8% NYJ 115.6%
DEN 105.5% WSH 110.8% NYJ 110.1%  GB 114.7%
TEN 105.5% PIT 103.2% CIN 109.3% DET 112.5%
PHI 105.2% DEN 102.3% DAL 108.7% JAX 110.7%
IND 103.2%  GB 98.8% DET 107.7% STL 109.7%
HOU 102.8% HOU 96.6% BAL 107.5% HOU 109.2%
MIN 102.8% BAL 96.5% PIT 107.5% PHI 106.1%
OAK 102.3% MIA 96.4% PHI 105.3% CIN 104.7%
STL 101.8% TEN 95.1% CAR 105.0% BAL 102.7%
 NE 101.5% NYG 94.5% CLE 103.7% ARI 100.7%
CAR 100.6% JAX 94.4% JAX 102.3% NYG 99.0%
JAX 99.3% CAR 93.7% STL 101.5% CAR 97.5%
 KC 98.4%  TB 93.6% ATL 99.4% CLE 96.6%
CIN 96.5% BUF 93.0% OAK 95.4% TEN 96.1%
ATL 96.2% ARI 92.5%  GB 92.7% OAK 96.0%
DAL 95.3% CLE 92.1% HOU 92.0% ATL 93.5%
PIT 95.0% CIN 87.9% WSH 89.5% BUF 90.4%
ARI 94.9% MIN 87.2% NYG 89.2% PIT 90.1%
 TB 94.8%  SD 86.7% TEN 88.3% MIN 87.7%
 NO 92.4%  NO 83.2% ARI 87.8%  NO 87.4%
CLE 92.1% ATL 81.1%  NO 87.5%  SD 79.9%
NYG 91.1%  NE 74.3%  NE 85.8%  NE 70.2%
BUF 74.4% IND 62.5% BUF 68.5% IND 69.4%

Depending on the type of board used, Minnesota fares extremely well (the forecaster’s board), average (mocker’s board), or poorly (consensus and evaluator boards). A lot of that value is contingent on a player like Jarvis Landry dropping as he did. Most interesting will be to see how the boards compare against some of the experts that helped construct it.

In either case, it’s just a way of passing the time until the draft actually happens. People seem fairly confident Minnesota will either land C.J. Mosley or Blake Bortles. What do you think?