NFL Week 12: Statistical Power Rankings and System Picks Against the Spread
No long writeup like usual (and I did miss a week or two here, so no surprise either), but I’d like to keep my power rankings up to date and delve further in to which teams are most likely to win what games and by how much. One interesting note: the Bills are almost universally ranked by the media to be the 18th-ranked team in the NFL, which is odd.
Subjective Media Rankings | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team | ESPN | NFL.com | B/R | CBS | Yahoo | Fox | NBC | AP | SBN | Avg |
New England Patriots | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 |
Green Bay Packers | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 |
Denver Broncos | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3.89 |
Arizona Cardinals | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3.89 |
Dallas Cowboys | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5.00 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 5.67 |
Indianapolis Colts | 8 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7.56 |
Seattle Seahawks | 7 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 8.11 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 12 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 10.44 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 10 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 16 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 10.78 |
Baltimore Ravens | 11 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11.33 |
San Francisco 49ers | 9 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 11.56 |
Detroit Lions | 13 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12.33 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 14 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 13.22 |
Miami Dolphins | 17 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 14.67 |
Cleveland Browns | 16 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 15.56 |
San Diego Chargers | 15 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 16.11 |
Buffalo Bills | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17.67 |
Houston Texans | 20 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 19.56 |
Chicago Bears | 19 | 20 | 22 | 19 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 24 | 20.56 |
St. Louis Rams | 23 | 21 | 21 | 25 | 20 | 19 | 23 | 20 | 19 | 21.22 |
New Orleans Saints | 21 | 23 | 20 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 22.00 |
Atlanta Falcons | 22 | 22 | 23 | 21 | 27 | 26 | 24 | 23 | 24 | 23.56 |
Minnesota Vikings | 24 | 24 | 26 | 26 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 24 | 22 | 23.56 |
New York Giants | 26 | 25 | 24 | 23 | 26 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 27 | 25.00 |
Carolina Panthers | 25 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 27 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 25.67 |
Washington Redskins | 27 | 28 | 27 | 30 | 27 | 28 | 30 | 29 | 25 | 27.89 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 29 | 27 | 30 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 27 | 27 | 29 | 28.44 |
Tennessee Titans | 28 | 30 | 31 | 28 | 28 | 25 | 29 | 28 | 30 | 28.56 |
New York Jets | 30 | 31 | 29 | 27 | 30 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 28 | 29.22 |
Oakland Raiders | 31 | 29 | 28 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 30.44 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32.00 |
Those are from various media outlets. Biggest disagreements are Bengals, Steelers and Dolphins. Biggest agreements are the Jaguars, Packers and Patriots. The tie between the Broncos and Cardinals is interesting, but mostly irrelevant, given that more media outlets have the Broncos ranked higher; there are simply some odd ducks that have the Broncos ranked 5th or 6th. Compare that to opponent-adjusted point differential:
Opponent-Adjusted Point Differential | ||
---|---|---|
PD Rank | PD | Team |
1 | 13.1 | New England Patriots |
2 | 9.4 | Denver Broncos |
3 | 8.9 | Miami Dolphins |
4 | 8.6 | Green Bay Packers |
5 | 7.8 | Kansas City Chiefs |
6 | 6.3 | Seattle Seahawks |
7 | 5.0 | Baltimore Ravens |
8 | 4.6 | Buffalo Bills |
9 | 4.6 | Arizona Cardinals |
10 | 4.4 | Indianapolis Colts |
11 | 3.9 | Philadelphia Eagles |
12 | 3.6 | San Diego Chargers |
13 | 2.1 | Dallas Cowboys |
14 | 1.3 | Detroit Lions |
15 | 0.3 | Cincinnati Bengals |
16 | 0.3 | Houston Texans |
17 | -0.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
18 | -1.1 | New Orleans Saints |
19 | -1.3 | Cleveland Browns |
20 | -1.9 | San Francisco 49ers |
21 | -2.4 | St. Louis Rams |
22 | -3.5 | Minnesota Vikings |
23 | -4.8 | New York Giants |
24 | -5.5 | Oakland Raiders |
25 | -5.6 | Chicago Bears |
26 | -7.0 | Washington Redskins |
27 | -7.6 | Carolina Panthers |
28 | -7.7 | New York Jets |
29 | -7.7 | Atlanta Falcons |
30 | -8.7 | Tennessee Titans |
31 | -9.3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
32 | -9.7 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
Teams that point differential likes more than the media: Miami and Buffalo. Teams that point differential likes less than the media does: San Francisco and Dallas. The Miami trend will continue once we get into the systems. The losses Miami took are all good: Buffalo (who has a good point differential), Kansas City, Green Bay, Detroit and Denver. Playing Denver within three, Lions within four and Packers within three are all good signs. Their wins (including big ones over Buffalo, New England and the Chargers) tend to have a big margin of victory, too. 37 points over San Diego and 13 over New England and Buffalo are worth noticing.
Which is to say the Dolphins may not be going to the playoffs, but they’re better than teams that will be and are cursed with one of the most difficult strengths of schedule in the NFL (the highest of any team with a winning record, per Pro-Football-Reference and Football Outsiders—third-toughest by both systems).
Now for the different statistical outlooks. Again, these are from Advanced Football Analytics, Football Outsiders and my own efficiency system. Their systems do not express in terms of point differential, but I converted their scores into point differential. As a reminder, my own efficiency system takes into account the offensive and defensive opponent adjusted version of these variables: pass success rate, net yards per attempt, yards per carry, run success rate, touchdown rate, interception rate and fumble rate.
Statistical Systems Power Rankings | ||||||||
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Effective Rank | Effective PD | AFA Rank | Effective AFA PD | FO Rank | Effective FO PD | Home Eff Rank | Effective Home Eff PD | Team |
1 | 10.3 | 1 | 9.9 | 1 | 9.7 | 1 | 11.2 | Denver Broncos |
2 | 7.6 | 2 | 8.5 | 5 | 5.3 | 2 | 9.2 | Miami Dolphins |
3 | 6.7 | 3 | 6.6 | 3 | 6.7 | 4 | 6.9 | Green Bay Packers |
4 | 6.1 | 6 | 3.8 | 2 | 7.0 | 3 | 7.4 | New England Patriots |
5 | 3.9 | 8 | 3.3 | 7 | 3.9 | 8 | 4.3 | Kansas City Chiefs |
6 | 3.8 | 4 | 4.2 | 6 | 5.1 | 13 | 2.1 | Seattle Seahawks |
7 | 3.6 | 9 | 2.8 | 10 | 2.4 | 5 | 5.5 | Dallas Cowboys |
8 | 3.5 | 4 | 4.2 | 12 | 2.0 | 9 | 4.2 | Indianapolis Colts |
9 | 3.2 | 11 | 2.4 | 9 | 2.6 | 6 | 4.7 | Buffalo Bills |
10 | 3.0 | 12 | 1.9 | 4 | 6.1 | 14 | 0.9 | Baltimore Ravens |
11 | 2.7 | 6 | 3.8 | 11 | 2.1 | 12 | 2.3 | San Francisco 49ers |
12 | 1.8 | 15 | 1.4 | 15 | 1.0 | 10 | 3.1 | Cincinnati Bengals |
13 | 1.6 | 12 | 1.9 | 18 | 0.3 | 11 | 2.7 | New Orleans Saints |
14 | 1.0 | 22 | -1.9 | 16 | 0.4 | 7 | 4.5 | San Diego Chargers |
15 | 0.6 | 16 | 0.9 | 8 | 3.4 | 23 | -2.6 | Philadelphia Eagles |
16 | 0.5 | 17 | 0.5 | 13 | 1.9 | 19 | -1.0 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
17 | 0.3 | 12 | 1.9 | 14 | 1.3 | 22 | -2.2 | Detroit Lions |
18 | -0.2 | 18 | -0.5 | 17 | 0.4 | 17 | -0.7 | Arizona Cardinals |
19 | -0.7 | 9 | 2.8 | 19 | -0.9 | 25 | -3.9 | Cleveland Browns |
20 | -1.5 | 21 | -1.4 | 21 | -2.5 | 16 | -0.5 | Houston Texans |
21 | -1.7 | 22 | -1.9 | 22 | -2.6 | 15 | -0.5 | Chicago Bears |
22 | -2.8 | 20 | -0.9 | 30 | -5.8 | 20 | -1.5 | Tennessee Titans |
23 | -3.0 | 25 | -4.2 | 25 | -4.2 | 18 | -0.7 | New York Giants |
24 | -3.3 | 18 | -0.5 | 27 | -4.8 | 27 | -4.7 | Washington Redskins |
25 | -3.7 | 30 | -7.5 | 20 | -1.7 | 21 | -1.8 | Atlanta Falcons |
26 | -4.3 | 29 | -6.1 | 24 | -4.0 | 24 | -2.8 | St. Louis Rams |
27 | -4.9 | 24 | -2.4 | 29 | -5.3 | 29 | -7.1 | Carolina Panthers |
28 | -5.4 | 26 | -5.7 | 23 | -3.7 | 28 | -6.8 | Minnesota Vikings |
29 | -6.0 | 26 | -5.7 | 31 | -8.1 | 26 | -4.2 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
30 | -6.9 | 31 | -8.0 | 26 | -4.8 | 30 | -7.9 | Oakland Raiders |
31 | -7.5 | 26 | -5.7 | 28 | -5.1 | 32 | -11.7 | New York Jets |
32 | -8.4 | 32 | -8.5 | 32 | -8.4 | 31 | -8.4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
As much as we look to immediate record and most recent results to inform our decisions, it turns out that the Denver Broncos are still performing better than any other team. Of course, we can be surprised by Miami’s ranking here, but maybe we shouldn’t be: they played bad teams out of the water (beating Oakland, Chicago and Jacksonville by 17 points on average), beat some good teams by a good amount and only had close losses to good teams.
For other teams who are undervalued by power rankings (or perhaps other teams whose performances and win totals don’t align yet): Washington and New Orleans are both performing better than the power rankings would suggest. On the other end of the spectrum: Arizona and Philadelphia are both overperforming relative to their national expectation.
Finally, the picks—each system has its record against the spread since Week 7 in parenthesis:
System Picks | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
AFA (.488) | FO (.424) | Eff (.500) | PD (.505) | Vegas |
Detroit Lions by 6.8 | Detroit Lions by 6.9 | Detroit Lions by 1.9 | Detroit Lions by 5 | Detroit Lions by 7 |
San Francisco 49ers by 2.5 | San Francisco 49ers by 0 | San Francisco 49ers by 3.1 | Seattle Seahawks by 2.6 | San Francisco 49ers by 1 |
Dallas Cowboys by 4.9 | Dallas Cowboys by 1.9 | Dallas Cowboys by 8.4 | Dallas Cowboys by 0.6 | Dallas Cowboys by 3 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1.6 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1.3 | Cincinnati Bengals by 3.5 |
Miami Dolphins by 11.1 | Miami Dolphins by 7.4 | Miami Dolphins by 11 | Miami Dolphins by 6.8 | Miami Dolphins by 7 |
Jacksonville Jaguars by 1.6 | New York Giants by 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars by 0.6 | New York Giants by 1 | New York Giants by 2.5 |
Pittsburgh Steelers by 1.6 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 4.6 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 0.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 1.8 | Pittsburgh Steelers by 4.5 |
Houston Texans by 2.5 | Houston Texans by 6.3 | Houston Texans by 3.7 | Houston Texans by 6 | Houston Texans by 6.5 |
Baltimore Ravens by 6.8 | Baltimore Ravens by 8.7 | Baltimore Ravens by 0.6 | Baltimore Ravens by 2.2 | Baltimore Ravens by 6.5 |
Indianapolis Colts by 7.7 | Indianapolis Colts by 9.7 | Indianapolis Colts by 8.9 | Indianapolis Colts by 7.2 | Indianapolis Colts by 10 |
Arizona Cardinals by 4.1 | Atlanta Falcons by 0.9 | Atlanta Falcons by 2.3 | Arizona Cardinals by 4.6 | Arizona Cardinals by 2.5 |
Carolina Panthers by 0.3 | Minnesota Vikings by 4.6 | Minnesota Vikings by 3.2 | Minnesota Vikings by 3.5 | Minnesota Vikings by 3 |
Buffalo Bills by 2.5 | Buffalo Bills by 6.5 | Buffalo Bills by 8.7 | Buffalo Bills by 4.4 | Buffalo Bills by 7 |
St. Louis Rams by 4.9 | St. Louis Rams by 3.8 | St. Louis Rams by 6.4 | St. Louis Rams by 3 | St. Louis Rams by 7 |
Green Bay Packers by 5.8 | Green Bay Packers by 2.7 | Green Bay Packers by 2.7 | New England Patriots by 0.8 | Green Bay Packers by 3 |
Denver Broncos by 3.6 | Denver Broncos by 2.8 | Denver Broncos by 1.6 | Kansas City Chiefs by 0.7 | Denver Broncos by 2 |
Go Vikings!