For some reason I am overly obsessed with the free agency nuance that is the NFL’s compensatory draft pick formula. It is a fairly secretive formula that seems to throw speculators a curveball right about the time they think they have it figured out. The formula looks at unrestricted free agents (not restricted, released, traded or retired) and the contracts they sign, in addition to a year’s worth of performance, to decide how the 32 compensatory picks will be awarded.
In short, the picks will go to teams that lose more free agents than they sign, with the value of those picks increasing with the formulaic value of the players lost. There are still plenty of unknowns at this point to truly give an accurate prediction, but I’m attempting to decipher the Vikings odds of getting an extra pick or two in the 2015 NFL Draft.