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I’m going with the not sure yet option because it’s just way to early to say. I’m specifically wanting to see how the LT prospects sort themselves out. Kalil is the early favorite and #1 on most peoples ratings, but a few people out there have Reif #1. If it turns out that there really isn’t a big difference between Reif and Kalil (or Martin and even Adams now after the SR Bowl), then I’ld be much more inclined to say trade down. If Kalil clearly separates himself during the next couple months and the other guys end up with question marks than they need to take him at 3 if he’s there.
Good points Dan. Thanks for stopping by. I completely agree with you… Time will tell if Kalil is significantly better than the other LTs, as some suggest.
I don’t know if it’s just me, but I can’t see anything besides the headline.
Malte, do you mind if I shoot you an email to try and figure out why you’re not seeing the poll?
It’s working now
That’s good. I wonder why it wasn’t working…
I think if the Rams take Blackmon at 2, then the Vikes should trade down with Washington or Cleveland and pick up hopefully another 1st rounder next year (unlikely if it is with Cleveland). This would put us at 6 and with only the Browns and Tampa picking before us I feel barring a trade up (from someone like the panthers), Kalil would fall to us at 6 because oth of these teams already have great left tackles and have other holes that can be filled. That would be the ideal scenario, but obviously a lot is going to happen over the next couple of months with the combine etc.
If Kalil makes it past St. Louis, it is very possible that he could fall that low. Definitely an ideal scenario in my opinion – best of both worlds.
Need to have a poll as to the odds that they try to get fancy and screw it up somehow. Also need to take this poll again after free agency alot will change by then. But oline has to be the first pick but then again they could get lucky in free agency, doubt it tho.
Definitely. I’m sure will have similar polls regarding the draft as we get closer to April.
Here’s my answer: Trade down. Then trade down again. Then trade down again.
Pick up as many mid-round picks as possible in 2012 and as many additional picks as possible in 2013. I’m an “accuracy by volume” type of guy, especially when a team has as many needs as this one.
I dont know Adam, we need quality just as much as quantity. Seems like the more dinking around they do moving up and down the more practice squad guys they get. Let’s hope Speilman can do better without that albatross childo hanging around his neck
I know what you mean, Johnny. But right now this team has a number of studs (Harvin, Allen, Peterson)… and what they need really badly is a well rounded roster. Second and third round guys aren’t typically going to end up on your practice squad if your scouting dept is worth a hoot. This team has needs at WR, G, TE, CB, S, and LB… these positions often have solid talents found in the second and third day of the Draft.
LT is really the only position-of-need in which a high first round pick is really needed to get a stud. Kalil might be worth it, but you have to think of the reverse…
For example, pretend that we had the 8th pick in this Draft. Would you be in favor of the Vikings giving up that pick, a first rounder next year, and possibly a few more late round picks to trade up and get Kalil? I bet you would hate that trade, I know I would. Thus, if the Dolphins (again, just an example) are willing to give all of those picks to us in exchange for the third overall selection, would that not make sense using the same logic in reverse?
If I’m Spielman, then I trust my scouting department or I don’t. If I don’t trust them, then they’ve already been fired. If I do trust them, then I’m more than willing to trade backwards early and often with confidence that my scouts will find me valuable players to select a little further down the line.
I should also add DT to that list of needs… again a position where great value can be found in later rounds.
The Patriots have employed this strategy for years… and there is a reason they are consistently one of the best teams in the NFL. Building through the draft is key. If you have more picks, buidling through the draft is easier. (Its also easier to part ways with idiots on your roster like the Pats have been able to do).
So do Vikes have 8 picks or 10? I’ve seen some places say 8 and some say 10. That would seem important in the strategy of trading down for more picks. Still have to see how free agency plays out too. If they could just land a starter or 2 that would ease things up a bit. I wish we knew who Speilman is gonna dump and who stays.
Johnny, I think there are some conditional picks that need to be sorted out still (i.e. the McNabb trade and the Rosenfels trade)… I have seen some talk of that around. As it stands right now, however, the Viking shave eight picks. The sites that are saying 10 either know something I don’t about the Rosenfels trade or they are projecting the comp picks (of which I still think we will be awarded three, not two).
Adam, I agree to some extent with accuracy by volume. This method is particularly important if you have very few draft picks or are picking late in the first round. However, this year with the vikings have their full complement of draft picks plus projected extra middle round picks from free agency, PLUS a very high pick in the first round. I think this is an ideal situation to grab an elite player at one of the positions of need. The Patriots have had to draft using their method of acquiring picks because they have Tom Brady at qb and are constantly picking in the last 6 of the first round for the last decade, where often projected blue chip players are not available. I imagine if they were picking at 2 or 3 last year they would have taken Von Miller, instead of trading back and getting a bunch of other late round picks that end up getting cut (Merriweather). With the Left tackle being so important in the passing league today, especially with a young quarterback, I would certainly be disappointed if the Vikes traded so far back and left the draft without a top LT, if the value was there of course. In saying that, it is also important not to miss on high first round picks, although the consequences are far less severe with the new CBA.
Haha, funny timing on this article: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/30/belichicks-kind-of-roster-patriots-have-18-undrafted-free-agents/
The Patriots have been willing to sacrafice their immediate needs for the future on a regular basis and it has paid off. When it comes to second and third round picks, they have had a minimum of four in the last three years… plus two first round picks. They ensure their first round draft position is better than their record warrants by swinging deals for future picks with less talented franchises. When they swing and miss (Merriweather) it doesn’t hurt as bad because they have hit plenty of times (Vollmer, Gronkowski, Mayo).
I would loe to see the Vikings improve at LT. But if they can get picks that let them improve at MLB, S, WR, and G instead… then that is preferable to me, personally.
Interesting article, Adam, although wouldn’t the fact the Patriots have 18 undrafted free agents on the 53 man roster imply that they aren’t that good at drafting and fact better at recognising undrafted talent (much like the Green Bay packers – unfortunately)? You mention he has had a minimum of four 2nd and 3rd round picks the last four year years, but when looking back at those drafts it’s hard to say that they have hit big on many draft picks. I would say outside of 2010, he has drafted quite poorly given the picks available.
2010 – McCourtney, Gronk, Hernandez and Spikes
2007 – No draft picks are on the current roster- 1st round pick merriweather (cut)
2008 – 1st round – J Mayo, Slater (5th) on special teams, the rest cut.
2009 – Landed Voller, but also traded out of the first round (passed on Clay Matthews, Hakeem Nicks and Kenny Britt) to land Darius Butler (now with the panthers) and Brandon Tate (now with the bengals) and Ron Brace (ron who?). Not only that they passed on a pro bowl safety in Byrd and picked up Chung.
I just think with 40 draft picks in the last 4 years the Pats have hardly hit as much as they should have/people make the out to have. I can understand that having Brady at QB you are doomed to pick in the last 10 or so every year and are unlikely to get the ‘blue chip’ players available in every draft, but when the opportunity arises you need to take it, like they have with their last two high first round picks (Wilfork and Mayo). I hope the Vikings trade back to the point where they can get great value, not simply for acquiring more picks.
All good points, SB, well thought out.
Over the last decade teh Pats have averaged 9 draft picks per year. Some have been hits and some have been misses, like any team. But with that shear amount of youth coming in year after year it is a lot easier to admit the mistakes and cut loose the dead weight.
Additionally, they have been able to use their abundance of picks to trade around on draft day and trade for other players. Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Deion Branch. Mayo was also the result of this trading scheme.
I think in a perfect world the Rams take Kalil, we trade our pick to the Skins so they jump ahead of Cleveland and we take Riley Rieff while picking up an extra first rounder next year.
And also take their 2nd round pick and maybe a fourth or fifth this year.
Adam or Brett can you find out why E.J. Henderson is in a sling. He was seen at the Wolves game with a sling and maybe a cast on his left arm.
We’ll never know how many times NFL teams got burned, and therefore failed to get who they wanted, because they thought they knew how another team would draft. I am an opponent of getting cute while trying to get who you want. So what happens if we get cute and don’t get Kalil or Reiff? Then we have to draft Spongebob Squarepants or sign Forrest Gump to try to improve our offensive line. How’d that work for us this year?
Drafting requires great courage. Take the draft pick you HAVE to get the player you WANT, and let the experts think what they want. All these rankings and points and projections… it doesn’t really matter where a player “should” be picked. What really matters is who you should get to fix your team. Take the best rated lineman at #3. Period.
If we don’t move down past 6, we should have one of Kalil, Reiff, or Claiborne available. All worthy of takig
I hear you, Brendan, and maybe that’s the way to go. My point is… decide how you (Vikings) feel about each one. If you say, we really want Kalil over the other two, then take him with #3. If you truly don’t care which of the three you get, then the trade down idea might be good. As fans, we just have to realize that no matter what the Mel Kipers of the world think, the team has to decide who THEY want, and then make dang sure they get him. I was pleased that the Vikings took that approach with Ponder instead of jerking around hoping he be there later. And I don’t care who calls that a “reach” pick, the bottom line is whether or not the guy you want is wearing your uniform.
That’s fair coach. But you say “…then make dang sure they get him.”
My philosophy on the draft would mean that sentence reads “…then make dang sure they get them.”
Comes down to risk level, doesn’t it Adam. I’m saying people have lost “him” because they tried to get “them”. I’m sure Leslie’s guys have many scenarios in mind. You just don’t dare trust these experts saying what teams will do what. I mean, they never do get it all right, but they don’t have to live with the results, either. If you lose the guy the experts said would still be there, don’t bother calling them. You’re the loser.
Hey Coach is there any chance you could sneak in and get a look at Rick’s draftboard right now? I know you still have a key.
You’d have a better chance getting a box of bricks out of Fort Knox, johnny. Nobody sees Rick’s board. Nobody.
I agree with you to some extent. In my opinion, if Kalil is rated higher than Rieff and Claiborne for example, but the staff is still sold on the other 2, they need to weigh the options. Is Kalil definitely better than the other two PLUS a potential top 15 pick next year?!
Fortunately I think the pick will be pretty easy, if the Kalil is gone, trade the pick and many people will be looking to come up at get Griffin, if they trade the pick and Griffin goes 2nd, then the pick won’t be worth near as much and we should take Kalil. It seems very unlikely (to me) that we will have both Kalil and a good trade offer on the table (that doesnt require us to drop down too low)
PURE speculation, but if Kalil and Reiff rate out pretty evenly for the Vikes and are both available at 3 (Colts take Luck, Rams take Blackmon) and we get an offer from Washington for our 3rd for their 6th and 3rd in 2012 and 2013 1st round, do you take it, Coach? I mean that could be a very high pick given the division they play in. Then by trading back (there you go Adam ), those two first rounders next year could give the Vikings an abundance of picks to load the roster with young talent (if used correctly).
Love the discussion everyone!
I guess another point that we often forget, is that with the new CBA, teams are going to be more willing to trade into the top spots to get the players they want due to reduced salary hit of top 10 picks. Therefore, while I have certainly been an advocate of trading down based on getting the best value for players, Coach, is right in saying that you don’t want to risk getting to fancy in predicting what team will take who. Now teams in the 10-15 pose a far greater threat than in previous years of trading into the top 5 to grab players making drafting far more unpredictable.
There are so many different scenarios. I think there are 2-3 likely to happen. Every scenario includes luck being taken by indy.
1. Rams could take blackmon leaving Vikings with 2 options. Take Kalil and be happy or trade down with a. cleveland or b. washington (don’t wanna trade futher down and risk not getting Reiff.) – In that scenario we will be certain to land kalil / Reiff / claiborne. While picking up extra picks. In my mind there are many reason to do just that as i see all of these players as blue chip players.
2. Rams take kalil – vikings should trade down with either a. cleveland or b. washington (don’t wanna trade futher down and risk not getting Reiff.) – leaves us with Reiff / claiborne / blackmon
3. Rams trade down with someone who wants griffen. Vikings really won’t have any good trade partners and should just pick up kalil..
I agree, Malte, they are all pretty likely. What if the Rams taking Kalil and the Vikings trade back with Washington (so they can pick up RGIII) and Cleveland trade back with someone we haven’t discussed to take Reiff, then Tampa takes Claiborne and we are left with Blackmon, who despite being a great player, plays a position that is extremely deep in FA and where talent can be found later in the draft. Unless we got a ransom for that 3rd pick I would be pretty disappointed with Blackmon at 6.
as of right now I don’t see a team tradeing up to get Reiff.. – The team most OT needy is arizona, and they are very far back to trade that far up.. I see a bigger posibility that Cleveland takes Trent Richards / bucs take him
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